Patriots-Ravens playoff prediction roundup
Maybe losing Wes Welker isn’t such a bad thing.
For sure that statement carries with an unprecedented amount of stupidity, for teams looking to make a Super Bowl run rarely celebrate the loss of the game’s best slot receiver. Mix in what it might mean for double-coverage opportunities on Randy Moss vs. the Ravens Sunday, and you’re pinning your hopes on rookie Julian Edelman emerging as a playoff star in order for the Patriots to have a shot at going deep into the playoffs. Hey, have you heard that he looks just like Welkah out theya?
But maybe when the Patriots potentially hit the road for San Diego next weekend, the absence of Welker takes the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands a bit. It’s fair to point out that since beating the Eagles in the Super Bowl five years ago, Brady’s ninth-straight playoff victory, he’s gone just 5-3 in the postseason. Some of the numbers on the road in particular have been downright ugly.
2006
Jan. 7 vs. Jacksonville: 15-27, 201 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions, 116.4 rating. Win.
Jan. 14 at Denver: 20-36, 341 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, 74.0 rating. Loss.
2007
Jan. 7 vs. NY Jets: 22-34, 212, yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions, 101.6 rating. Win.
Jan. 14 at San Diego: 27-51, 280 yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions, 57.6 rating. Win.
Jan. 21 at Indianapolis: 21-34, 232 yards, one touchdown, one interception, 79.5 rating. Loss.
2008
Jan. 12 vs. Jacksonville: 26-28, 262, three touchdowns, zero interceptions, 141.4 rating. Win.
Jan. 20 vs. San Diego: 22-33, 209 yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions, 66.4 rating. Win.
Feb. 3 vs. NY Giants: 29-48, 266 yards, one touchdown, zero interceptions, 82.5 rating. Loss.
In four playoff games on the road over that time span, Brady’s passing rating is a pedestrian 73.4. He’s thrown just five touchdowns vs. six interceptions away from Gillette, a trend that continued during the 2009 regular season. Brady threw 11 touchdowns, 10 interceptions on the road (81.7) vs. 17 touchdowns, only three interceptions at home (109.2). That’s the worst road passing rating of Brady’s career, a large reason why New England won just twice away from Foxborough this season.
Maybe the loss of Welker will lead to a more balanced offensive attack, particularly now that Fred Taylor is back, limiting the amount of carries that Laurence Maroney will give away at the goal line and will also force Brady to utilize Ben Watson and Chris Baker more. He’s never lost a playoff game at Gillette, of course. But the last time he won a road playoff game, he has Troy Brown’s strip to be thankful for in arguably his worst career playoff start at San Diego.
But if he has to adjust to a balanced attack, in lieu of familiarity, in a potential rematch next Sunday, well maybe that’s not so devastating.
Who they’re picking
Our roundup of picks for this week’s Ravens-Patriots playoff game:
- Baltimore Sun staff: Six out of seven go with the home team.
- ESPN.com staff: Five out of eight pick the Patriots.
- Globe Staff picks: Patriots across the board vs. the 3 1/2-point spread.
- Tim Layden, Sports Illustrated: Patriots 16, Ravens 14. “This has all the makings of a nasty battle. It’s going to be cold and probably windy. The Ravens are designed for January, with a solid running game behind Rice and McGahee and a play-action passing game. With Welker out, the Ravens are unlikely to let Moss beat them. Still: This is the wild-card round in Foxboro and it’s hard to envision New England losing to a team that struggles to score points. Neither of these teams are going to the Super Bowl, but you have to believe Brady makes just enough plays to keep the Patriots alive.”
- Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Patriots 31, Ravens 28. ” This is a rematch of a game won by the Patriots earlier this season. The Ravens were driving to the winning score that day, but Mark Clayton dropped a pass to end a late drive that could have given the Ravens a victory. The Baltimore defense is better now than it was in that game, and the Patriots are without receiver Wes Welker. The Ravens are tough to run on, but the Patriots are a pass-first team. Look for Randy Moss to have a big day, even with double coverage. The Ravens will also have success throwing it against the Patriots. Joe Flacco is in his second playoffs, so he should be calm. They have to take shots. The Patriots will win on a late field goal by Stephen Gostkowski.”
- CBS Sports staff: Four out of six pick the Ravens vs. the 3-1/2-point spread.
- Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Ravens 30, Patriots 27. “You know in the rematch that Baltimore will be adept at shutting down the Patriots’ mix of backs in the running game. In turn the Patriots will work to take away what the Ravens do best — move the ball with feature back Ray Rice.”
- Peter Schrager, FoxSports.com: Ravens 23, Patriots 20. “We’re in store for an upset. Look for the Ravens to jump out early, bleed the clock with that dynamic running game and get a surprisingly stellar performance out of what has been a shaky secondary. Call me crazy, but I like John Harbaugh’s team in this one.”
- USA Today staff: Seven out of eight pick the Patriots.
- Our pick: Patriots 31, Ravens 28. Get ready for a week of that stupid song.
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