The problem isn’t Pablo Sandoval’s current weight—it’s that he’s been regressing as a player for years
Red Sox third baseman Pablo Sandoval during the ninth inning of a game against the Royals at Fenway Park in August 2015.
[fragment number=0] COMMENTARY
It’s a perfectly awful topic, a hot-taker’s delight, made for — or made possible by — the sports doldrums of late February. But even as we enter … what is this … Day 3 of discussing Pablo Sandoval’s portly physique, the important issue as it pertains to the 2016 Red Sox season continues to slip by unnoticed, like a non-roster invitee walking through the gates of JetBlue Park at the precise moment David Ortiz rolls in.
The concern should not be Sandoval’s waistline. It should be that his recent stat lines indicate that he’s probably not good at playing baseball anymore.
Yes, this may be something of a chicken-and-egg argument, and here is where we wittily remark that Sandoval probably ate both the chicken and egg with a side of hash browns, then went back for seconds. There. Consider my quota of snarky Sandoval weight jokes fulfilled. I get to keep my privileges in the Boston sports media lodge, right?
That theoretical chicken and egg, of course, is that question of which came first: Is he now a subpar ballplayer because of his physical condition? Or did he report to his second camp out of shape in part because of frustration and lingering pressure after a dismal first season in Boston?
All that is required to know the answer is a visit to his Baseball-Reference.com page, perhaps with an accompanying Google image search for “Sandoval Giants World Series’’: His physique has been the same for much if not all of his major-league career. And for a good portion of those eight seasons, he has been an above-average-to-excellent player.
His career adjusted OPS in his seven seasons with the Giants was 123, which means he was 23 percent better than a league-average hitter in that span. He submitted a .294/.346/.465 slash line in that span, played a capable third base, and was otherworldly in the World Series. He was prominent in the last two of the Giants’ three recent championships (2010, ‘12 and ’14), with a slash line of .426/.460/.702 in 50 plate appearances.
In San Francisco, Sandoval was often an excellent player, especially when stakes were high. At no time during this successful span was he in danger of being described as waifish. Still, with hindsight enhancing and confirming what was a nagging feeling when the Red Sox signed him to a five-year, $95 million deal in December 2014, it remains bewildering as to why management collectively decided it was a wise idea to bring him to Boston.
Sandoval’s sensational 2014 playoff run with the Giants — he hit .400 in the National League Championship Series victory over the Cardinals and .429 in the stirring World Series defeat of the Royals — may have had an afterglow that appealed to his suitors in free agency. But it should not have blinded anyone to evidence found in much larger sample-sizes: He had been regressing as an offensive player for years.
During his final three seasons with the Giants, Sandoval’s batting average was stable: He hit between .278 and .283 in each of those years. But his on-base and slugging percentages declined slightly all three years. Similarly, his OPS fell from .789 in 2012 to .758 in ’13 to .739 in ’14 — those declines came after a high of .909 in 2011.
Sandoval’s production had declined steadily, annually, and far from the All-Star standards he set early in his career. It’s impossible to envision him again resembling the player he was in 2009 (.330/.387/.556, 25 homers), even if he is only 29 years old. He was brutal last season for the Red Sox — slashing .245/.292/.366 with 10 homers and displaying a lack of defensive range that made you wonder whether he was sessile.
That he’s shown up for camp in roughly the same physical shape as last year has to be interpreted as a sign that he either lacks a modicum of self-awareness or was not sufficiently embarrassed about his performance last year to actually do something about it. I should say I don’t believe the theory that he has gotten by on natural talent for years and doesn’t know how to work hard. Every pro athlete has to be crazy-dedicated along the way. Just imagine how many dumbbells Hanley Ramirez has thrown around to get as strong as he is. Yet, he gets portrayed as lazy.
So why did the Red Sox sign Sandoval in the first place?
My semi-educated theory goes something like this: The Red Sox had a black hole at third base thanks to Will Middlebrooks’s inability to hit a slider and Garin Cecchini’s prospect star collapsing into itself at Triple-A. Former Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington, I suspect, was lukewarm on Sandoval but figured he’d at least be average, which would be an upgrade over what they had. So, hey, why not? If the bosses want him …
And I do believe Red Sox management above Cherington wanted Sandoval. Coveted him, even. They saw Sandoval star in the postseason, remembered how popular productive and plump players could be here (such as Rich Garces), and figured the NESN audience would love him. So without heeding the warnings that Boston might not be the right atmosphere for him — similar to what was said, correctly, about Edgar Renteria and Carl Crawford in advance of past free-agency disasters — they vastly overpaid … and they’re going to be overpaying for four more years. Meanwhile, the Panda merch was on the discount rack right around the All-Star break last year.
Current Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and manager John Farrell are saying all the right things about Sandoval’s physical condition. They’re not going to make it into a major issue before the team has even played Boston College and Northeastern. But you know they are somewhere between annoyed and enraged. I heard Farrell say at the Boston baseball writers dinner that Sandoval had lost 20-22 pounds. That dinner was Jan. 21, barely a month ago. Farrell is not a smoke-blower, so either someone misled the manager, or Sandoval has gained roughly two pounds every three days since then. I think we know the answer.
Perhaps the weight is a reason Sandoval is in the midst of a multi-season decline before his 30th birthday. If you’re looking for hope — and this is the time of the season to do so — it’s worth remembering that Sandoval looked similarly even when he was one of the most difficult outs in the National League. But this much also appears to be true: If he submits another one of his trademark dazzling postseasons this year, it will be an upset, because right now it looks like the Red Sox will have to succeed in spite of him rather than because of him.
Chad Finn can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @GlobeChadFinn.
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