Here is the most—and least—amount of snow Massachusetts could get Tuesday
The worst, best, and most likely scenarios, in three National Weather Service maps.
Forecasting snow totals is an inexact science.
As Tuesday’s potential blizzard gets closer, the National Weather Service is gradually closing in on an expected total. But the forecasts still exist in a range of probable outcomes.
According to service’s Monday afternoon forecast, the most likely range for Boston is between 12 to 18 inches of snow. And yet there is a 65 percent chance the city will get either more or less than that range.
According to the agency, snowfall in Boston could reach up to 20 inches Tuesday; the maximum for parts of Western Massachusetts is nearly 30 inches of snow. Here’s the worst-case scenario (or best, depending on your perspective):
Alternatively, the storm could just as well fall short of those projections. There’s only a one-in-five chance Boston gets more than 18 inches, according to the weather service, and there’s a 40 percent chance the city gets between between six and 12 inches. Due to the nature of the storm — which could bring rain and sleet later in the day Tuesday — the expected totals vary widely across coastal New England.
Western Massachusetts is expected to get a minimum of around 15 to 20 inches, either way. Here’s the minimum to expect across the region, according to the service:
The most probable outcome is likely somewhere in the middle.
Based off Monday afternoon’s projections, the service published a chart of the possible and most likely exact snow totals for southern New England cities. The chart also includes probabilities that snowfall in each respective city will surpass certain benchmarks. For example, there is a 55 percent chance that Boston gets more than a foot of snow.
The service has published similar forecast charts and maps for New Hampshire and Maine — via the agency’s branch in Gray, Maine — and for Vermont, courtesy of their Burlington and Albany, New York offices.
The estimates for those areas, however, show less variance than in Massachusetts and the rest of southern New England.
This last map from the agency shows the probabilities that the snow totals will reach at least a foot across the region Tuesday.
Chance snow Tuesday exceeds a foot.
