Division adding up
If nobody minds, let’s take a break from the constant national fawning that is our supposed love affair with the NFL’s NFC East. After all, as nasty as the Giants have looked through eight games, I suppose I’m not in the majority that figures the NFC should have an extra wild card slot just so the Redskins, Cowboys, and Eagles all get into the playoffs.
Look at the NFC South, for instance, with three playoff contenders in 6-2 Carolina, 6-3 Tampa Bay, and 5-3 Atlanta, each with as good – or better – shot at the postseason than Washington, Dallas, or Philadelphia. Yet, we never hear about the strength of that division, mainly due to the lack of soap opera story lines, ones that the East provides us with daily.
Which brings us to the upside-down world of the AFC East, a division that few are going to confuse as on par with the aforementioned pair in terms of power and elite status in the NFL, but remains just as competitive with no clear-cut favorite halfway through the season.
This is a division the Patriots have won every season since 2003, and finished nine games ahead of the Bills in the standings a year ago. Today we have a three-way tie, with the Pats, Jets, and Bills all at 5-3, the Dolphins just a game off the pace at 4-4.
It is the most competitive the division has been since 2002, when the Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins all finished 9-7 (with only New York going to the playoffs), the Bills bringing up the rear at 8-8.
This week, the Patriots face the Bills in their third divisional matchup of the season, heading into the game with a 1-1 mark against the Jets and Dolphins, and momentum on their side, despite a three-point loss at Indianapolis Sunday night, a game that featured its share of blunders from the coaching staff, but more eye-opening results from the defense and a quarterback coming into his own.
The Bills are 1-3 in their last four games after a 4-0 start. The Pats are just 2-2, but head into the game with more bright spots than not following Sunday’s loss: The continued solid work from Matt Cassel, who still needs to cut down on the interceptions (though at least one against St. Louis wasn’t his fault), and an offensive line that allowed its QB to be sacked zero times. A defense featuring young, emerging talent (Jerod Mayo, Brandon Merriweather, Terrence Wheatley) has begun to gel, allowing a total of 41 points over its last three contests (13.7 ppg average), and overall has allowed fewer points on average of any AFC team other than Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee.
Buffalo, meanwhile, has lost back-to-back divisional games, allowing a total of 51 points (25.5 ppg average) and was forced to watch star running back Marshawn Lynch spend more time on the stationary bike on the sidelines that splitting up Jets defenders on Sunday.
So, we sure THIS is the Bills’ year?
Frankly, at this point I’d be more concerned about Miami than the Bills. The Dolphins have now beaten New England (which was at a crossroads back in September), the Chargers (who have been at a crossroads all season), the Broncos, and Buffalo. Let’s compare that for a moment to, oh, say the Redskins, who have beaten Cleveland and Detroit (a combined 3-11) for their last two wins and haven’t beaten a quality opponent since a 23-17 win over the Eagles a month ago.
Meanwhile, since starting the season 1-2, the Jets are an overtime kick away in Oakland from winning five straight, despite the continued overrated play of their quarterback (two touchdowns, six interceptions for Brett Favre in his last three games). The Jets haven’t had a share of the AFC East lead this late into a season since…yup, 2002.
With the likes of Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Tennessee, and the possibility of a resurgent Indy (which still faces a killer schedule down the stretch), it’s a long shot to expect both wild card slots to come from the East, but it seems just as good a shot – if not better – as watching a trio of squads make it from its NFC partner. If that’s the case, pencil in the Jets and Patriots, who still seem the best it has to offer.
Then, it might help to note that the Dolphins have the following on their second-half schedule: Seattle (2-6), Oakland (2-6), St. Louis (2-6), San Francisco (2-6), and Kansas City (1-7).
From 1-15 to a wild card in one calendar year? Might happen.
But that’s the AFC East in 2008, maybe not the best division in football, but probably the most competitive one the NFL has to offer.
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