Enjoy this one. The playoffs don’t start for another month.
The Steelers invade Foxborough on Sunday afternoon — the first time the Patriots have played at Gillette Stadium under some semblance of sunlight since Oct. 28 — and guarantees or no guarantees figure to give New England one of its toughest hurdles on the road to perfection — something not exactly expected from the likes of Philadelphia and Baltimore.
The Steelers’ strength, combined with New England’s close calls the last couple of weeks, means some pundits are actually picking against (gasp!) the Pats. That’s something we haven’t seen in at least 10 weeks.
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The 10 1/2-point spread is sort of ridiculous, considering Pittsburgh has the No. 1 defense in the league this season. But never mind the spread. Folks saw the past two weeks as signs of a “struggling” Pats team down the stretch, and one vulnerable to falling at the hands of Ben Roethlisberger and Co.
Of course, the Steelers are also coming off a recent loss to the Jets, and a sizzling 3-0 win over the winless Dolphins a couple of weeks ago.
Gone for now are the days of 55-point totals and accusations of running up the score. At least until next week, when Bill Belichick figures to set league history against Eric Mangini and the Jets. But Sunday on Route 1 figures to be the sort of nail-biting game synonymous with classic Patriots wins over the years — before Tom Brady was able to look around at the toys bestowed upon him and wonder what Reche Caldwell is up to these days. This will be the sort of game assuredly waiting come January vs. these same Steelers, Indy, or the Cowboys.
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Sunday will be a chore. Everything after that is just waiting for what could be.
Who they’re picking
How folks from around the country see Sunday’s Steelers-Patriots game:
Jim McCabe, Boston Globe: Steelers (taking the 10 1/2 points). “Who can blame Anthony Smith for predicting a victory? He never got a chance for that sort of cheap publicity when he played for 1-10 Syracuse in 2005.”
Boston Globe staff: Only Mike Reiss and Scott Thurston take the Patriots with the points.
Peter King, Sports Illustrated: Steelers 27, Patriots 20. “Five reasons: 1. A.J. Feeley and Kyle Boller have put up 52 points on the Patriots the last two weeks; Ben Roethlisberger won’t make the kind of late-game mistakes those two backups did. 2. Brian Westbrook and Willis McGahee have rushed for 190 yards on the Pats the last two weeks. I’m not in love with Willie Parker’s recent rushing numbers — 52, 81 and 87 yards, against three straight sub-.500 teams — but I think the Patriots will be vulnerable against a power running game. 3. Pats are tired after three straight night games, including the emotional Monday-nighter in frigid Baltimore. Bill Belichick didn’t even practice them Wednesday, an incredible rarity with a Sunday game upcoming. 4. Hines Ward’s will to win. The dude leads the league in it. 5. Just a gut feeling. The strain of going for perfection seems to be wearing on New England, while Pittsburgh is just bullyish enough not to fear the enormity of Sunday’s stage.”
Mike Tanier, Football Outsiders: Steelers. “The Steelers are a fashionable upset pick this week. We aren’t dedicated followers of fashion, but we love Big Ben and company vs. the Patriots. C’mon, they were getting 12 points when the lines opened. When’s the last time a 9-3 NFL team got 12 points? That spread will probably move down by the end of the week. Climb on the Steelers express early and you may enjoy the ride. The only X-factor: The early forecast calls for sunny skies in Foxboro. After weeks in the Agincourt battlefield, they may be blinded.”
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Patriots 29, Steelers 23. “This is the game of the week. We have the top-ranked offense (Patriots) against the top-ranked defense in the Steelers. Something has to give. The feeling here is that the offense makes it happen. Can the Steelers keep up? Not likely. But it’s close.”
Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News: Patriots 34, Steelers 23. “The disparity between the Patriots’ secondary and the Steelers’ secondary gives New England an edge in this game. Patriots strong safety Rodney Harrison came up huge in the fourth quarter last week, and both of New England’s starting cornerbacks, Ellis Hobbs and Asante Samuel, are aces in coverage. The Steelers don’t know if injured strong safety Troy Polamalu will play, and aside from Ike Taylor, their corners can be beaten. New England also has the deeper, more diverse receiving corps. Ultimately, Pittsburgh will make the game interesting, but I’m not about to pick against Brady and his teammates.”
She says, Z says: Brooklyn Decker: Steelers. Dr. Z: Patriots.
Jerry Magee, San Diego Tribune: Patriots. “Could it be that teams are catching on concerning how to engage the New Englanders? Nah.”
Jeff Zillgitt, USA Today: Patriots 28, Steelers 23. “The blueprint to beat the Patriots one week is to throw the ball and put pressure on New England QB Tom Brady. The blueprint the next week is to punch the Patriots in the mouth, run the football and put pressure on Brady. Can the Steelers throw the ball, punch the Patriots in the mouth, run the football and put pressure on Brady?”
Jerry Flanagan, Kansas City Star: Pats 27, Steelers 20. “The game of the week. The Pats have dodged bullets the last two weeks and really had no business winning at Baltimore. No team gets that lucky and that many breaks on a game-winning drive. The luck won’t run out this week, though Pittsburgh will play them tough.”
Ed McNamara, New York Daily News: Steelers (taking the points). “The game opened at 13 in some places. Fans and the Ravens accused the refs of helping the Patriots because their undefeated run is great for TV ratings. That’s a believable script, but upon further review all the crucial calls down the stretch Monday night were correct. What can we make of the Pats’ incredibly lucky escape in Baltimore? Either it means they’re destined to go 16-0, or a second straight squeaker against a losing team exposed more vulnerability. The Ravens ran for 166 yards and pushed the Pats around. If Willie Parker can hang onto the ball, Pittsburgh can give them a game.”
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Patriots 27, Steelers 20. “Pittsburgh safety Anthony Smith, a young nobody starting because of injuries, ”guarantees” a win. Isn’t that special!? Of course Steelers DO have a decent chance by Blitzburghing Tom Brady, and a great chance to cover as reflected by the spread plummeting from 13 to 10 ½. This is a top-shelf Game of the Week matching Pats’ No. 1 offense vs. ‘Burgh’s No. 1 D, and NE has seemed suddenly vulnerable in three-point wins over Philly and Baltimore (the latter due to an NFL conspiracy and crooked officiating, according to whiny Ravens). Bottom line? Betting on Pats to lose at home is dumb, dumber and dumbest. No happy ending here for Steeler Nation or ’72 Dolphins.”
Peter Yoon, Los Angeles Times: Patriots. “Forget what you’ve heard about the Patriots being vulnerable — they’re still winning.”
Our pick: Patriots 21, Steelers 20.
Willie Parker is a nice guy to have if your goal is to maintain possession and keep New England’s offense off the field. But even if they’re behind late in the game — at home — are you really going to count the Pats out? Closest game of the season, but … well, let’s just hope we’re in store for more of the inane stylings of Mercury Morris in the coming days.
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