Patriots-Bills predictions

These have to be the most difficult games for which Bill Belichick needs to prepare.

The man must have spent all day Monday and Tuesday scraping for something he could tell his players about why the Buffalo Bills might pose a challenge on Sunday. Conceivably, he might have drafted 18 different copies of “10 reasons why J.P. Losman can hurt you,” before hurtling the notebook in the trash bin, deciding to go with the weekly, “They’re real explosive,” nonsense.

In fact, even against an unreal spread of 16½, most folks across the nation are still picking the Patriots. Sixteen-and-a-half, people. According to Cold, Hard Football Facts, it is unofficially the biggest September spread since the Eagles were favored over Houston by 19½ in 2002 (Houston covered, losing 35-17). The website also believes it is the largest margin by which the Patriots have ever been favored.

Only four games last weekend were decided by 16½ or more points: Dallas’s 37-20 win over Miami, Green Bay’s 35-13 win over the New York Giants, Pittsburgh’s 26-3 win over Buffalo, and New England’s 38-14 win over San Diego.

The Bills are terrible across the board, passing for an average of just 96.5 yards per game (Hello, Lee Evans?), worst in the NFL, a league that, mind you, still employs Joey Harrington. Tom Brady and choose one of Randy Moss, Wes Welker, or Ben Watson will have a field day against a pass defense allowing 267.5 yards per game.

In terms of laughers though, even a Patriots blowout can’t compare to the utter hilarity of ESPN’s Gregg Easterbrook’s illogical rant earlier this week about Belichick and the demise of the NFL. Among the lowlights:

“Will Belichick even be in coaching by season’s end? When the Vick dogfighting scandal first broke, most football pundits, and most in the Atlanta and league offices, thought there would be few repercussions. Then they thought Vick would have to make some kind of apology. Then they thought he’d need some leave of absence. Then they thought he’d be suspended for a year. Now they wonder whether he’ll ever be allowed to play again. By acting Nixonian, Belichick is accelerating his fall from grace. Today, Belichick and New England are trying to pretend the scandal is over. It would not surprise me in the slightest if, before the season ends, Belichick resigns or is suspended or is fired by Kraft, or even is permanently barred from the league.”

Today’s Globe: “NFL investigation reveals no further improprieties”

Nice work, Gregg.

Easterbrook has quite a resume to be this out of touch with reality. According to his website he is a contributing editor of The Atlantic Monthly, The New Republic, and The Washington Monthly, and a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution. Oh, and he was born in Buffalo.

This is one really bad week for Buffalo.

Who they’re picking

Our roundup of how national writers are picking in this week’s Patriots-Bills contest.

Jim McCabe, Boston Globe: Bills (+16 ½). “At 2-0 and with fellow AFC East Division tenants the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills 0-2, who would have believed that the Patriots would clinch their playoff berth sooner than the Red Sox? But they just might.”
Boston Globe: Greg Lee, Scott Thurston: Patriots (-16 ½). Mike Reiss, Jim McBride, Chris Gasper: Bills.
Peter King, Sports Illustrated: Patriots 40, Bills 13. “Good news for New England’s fall favorites! Eric Gagne can’t blow this one! On a serious note (sort of), I love it when players think the league and the media and the other 31 teams are out to get them. Memo to 53 Patriots: This has nothing to do with you. Nothing. No one is impugning your character or integrity. But in Motivation-ville, who cares about the truth?”
ESPN.com: Patriots across the board.
Yahoo sports: Patriots across the board.
Mike Tanier, Football Outsiders.com: Patriots. “Leaving controversial issues aside for a moment, the Patriots don’t need the Stasi to tell them to keep a deep safety over Lee Evans, rush J.P. Losman from the edge so he can’t scramble, and run the ball to beat the Bills. That’s all we’ll say on the record. Someone may be listening.”
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports.com: Patriots 27, Bills 23. “The Patriots have looked like the league’s best team the first two weeks. But they’re coming off an emotional victory against San Diego, which is why the Bills will keep this closer than people think.”
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Patriots 38, Bills 14. “The Patriots will once again execute with perfect precision, and I think we’ll start hearing the perfect season talk after this game. Oh wait, I just brought it up, didn’t I?”
Jeff Zillgitt, USA Today: Patriots 34, Bills 14. “The Bills will have to cheat, and cheat well, to have any chance here. Exposing Bill Belichick’s dishonest ways provided schadenfreude, but Jets coach Eric Mangini did not do the rest of the league any favors. The Patriots are on a mission.”
King Kaufman, Salon.com: Patriots. “The Bills are better than their record or this point spread would indicate, but this game still qualifies to be a What the Heck™ Pick of the week, and since pretty much no other game does, here you go.”
Jerry Magee, San Diego Union Tribune: Patriots. “Give me 16 in an NFL game and I will reach for it, no matter which teams are involved.”
Nancy Gay, San Francisco Chronicle: Patriots. “Injuries, including the career-ending spinal injury sustained by tight end Kevin Everett, have devastated the Bills’ roster and derailed a promising season. The Pats showed that Bill Belichick’s Cam-Scam is no distraction by destroying the Chargers last week.”
Jeffrey Flanagan, Kansas City Star: Patriots. “OK, each week there’s several head-scratchers in the NFL, when for no apparent reason some huge underdog rises up and topples the favorite. That’s possible here as the Patriots may have a letdown after a huge Sunday night win over the Chargers. But the guess here is that the Pats will wake up by the second half and take care of business, just not enough to cover.”
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Patriots 31, Bills 13. “We include this game not because it’s hard to pick a winner from the early-season statistical murk, but because the Patriots are 16½-point favorites this early in a season and we wanted to see what the potential bloodbath looks like on paper.”
Vegas Vic, Philadelphia Inquirer: Bills. “Just when things couldn’t get any darker for Buffalo (0-2) – or brighter for New England (2-0) – we’re picking the Bills. Why? Check out the scores at Foxboro the last 2 years: Pats by 19-17 last year and by 21-16 in 2005.”
Buffalo News: Mark Gaughan, Milt Northrop, and Allen Wilson take the Bills to cover.
Jim Rich, New York Daily News: Patriots. “You know what they say about nice guys finishing last – which explains why the Patriots (2-0) have not finished last since Belichick weasled his way into town. The Bills (0-2) are bad and playing like a bunch of nice guys, which doesn’t bode well for those waiting for New England to get its comeuppance.”
Joel Magaraci, Newark Star-Ledger: Patriots. “What a minute. Is this Buffalo-Boston College? I know the Patriots are the best team on film. I know they’ve beaten the Bills seven times in a row. I know Randy Moss has outscored Buffalo’s entire offense by a 3-1 margin. I know the Patriots shut down L.T. and the high-powered Chargers offense. I know Tom Brady never loses at home to the Bills. I know all of this. But can we give the Bills a little respect?”
Peter Griffin, Family Guy: Patriots. “Well, first of all, New England is just freakin’ sweet. They may not lose a game the entire year. Plus, the Pats got spy cameras watchin’ you. Just like the government. “The Patriot Act” – that was all Belichick’s idea.”
Our pick (1-1): Patriots 41, Bills 14.