In fantasy football, it all comes down to this
Do not, under any circumstances, bet your season on a fluke.
Many fantasy football leagues reach a thrilling finale in Week 16. Standard fantasy setups culminate with a championship being decided by next Monday. It’s a dramatic and terrifying thought.
If you’re lucky (and skilled) enough to have reached your league’s final, it obviously all comes down to this. And even if you’re playing in the consolation bracket for the right to not be last, this week still has stakes.
As I’ve been lobbying for over the last few weeks, you can only prepare for the predictable scenarios. Do not, under any circumstances, bet your season on a fluke.
Even if you’ve had John Brown in your lineup all season — he’s objectively been an excellent fantasy option — he’s still playing the Patriots this week in a likely matchup with Defensive Player of the Year candidate Stephon Gilmore. You need to take that into account and seriously consider playing someone in his place.
This is the type of hard decision that will cause stress this week. It’s maddening to guess on important calls over who to start, and who to send to the bench. That’s why it’s crucial to approach these choices in a logical way.
If you’re still looking to fill holes in your lineup for Week 16, here are a few players who might be available:
Ryan Fitzpatrick, quarterback — Keeping in mind that the quarterback waiver wire situation in your league is probably pretty bleak at this point (as all of the traditional favorites are obviously rostered), Fitzpatrick may be the best available choice.
He’s topped 20 points in three of the last four weeks, and faces the one-win Bengals. Given that the game only will have consequences on next year’s draft order, it could be a more open contest. That would be good news for Fitzpatrick and fantasy owners who have him in their lineup.
Alexander Mattison/Mike Boone, running backs — This is an interesting one, since Vikings starter Dalvin Cook is unlikely to play in Monday night’s game against the Packers. Under normal circumstances, this would simply mean a straightforward chance for Mattison get a majority of Minnesota’s carries.
Given that it’s December, however, nothing is normal. Mattison missed Week 15 with an ankle injury and his status remains uncertain. Boone performed well a week ago with Cook and Mattison out, and he is a viable option, though it entirely depends on the injury report. Whoever gets the carries in this backfield will probably do well, so keep an eye on it.
Breshad Perriman, wide receiver — A former first-round pick of the Ravens, Perriman flew under the radar as a Buccaneers backup for most of the season. He had only three catches for 16 yards before November.
Yet injuries have opened the door for an increased role, and Perriman has seized it with both hands. He has 13 catches for 270 yards and four touchdowns in his last three games. With Mike Evans out for the season, and Chris Godwin already ruled out for this week, Perriman (rostered in fewer than half of ESPN and Yahoo! leagues) is a top-25 receiver in his matchup with the Texans.
Anthony Miller, wide receiver — Yes, I know I included him in last week’s column. But it appears the message on Miller still hasn’t really gotten out there. Despite being a top-five fantasy play last week, the Bears wideout is owned in just 29 percent of ESPN leagues (and 38 percent of Yahoo! leagues).
Facing the Chiefs, Miller should once again be prominently involved. He’s been targeted 52 times in the last five weeks, exceeding 100 yards receiving in two of his last three games. Kansas City’s high-powered offense could force Chicago to play more aggressively, leading to more targets for Miller (especially as the Chiefs’ defense hasn’t been as effective against the slot, where Miller has lined up 58 percent of the time).
Jacob Hollister, tight end — I’m nothing if not consistent with my recommendations at this position. Hollister, who has admittedly put up below-average statistics in his last four games, is facing the Cardinals on Sunday.
No defense has come close to Arizona in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season. The Cardinals have allowed an incredible 15 touchdowns to that position, and Hollister could add to the tally. He’s still available in more than half of ESPN leagues, so he might be a great championship week pickup if you can get him.
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