How will Roger Goodell rule on Tom Brady appeal? The way he thinks makes him look best
COMMENTARY
In a vague sense, we know exactly what to expect from NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell whenever the wanna-be omnipotent one gets around to revealing his ruling on Tom Brady’s appeal of his four-game suspension for “general awareness’’ that the Patriots “more probably than not’’ fiddled with the air pressure on footballs.
When Goodell deigns to let us commoners know whether the Patriots quarterback’s suspension will be trimmed or whether he stands by the original ruling enacted with his ball-peen hammer of justice, we know the decision will not be about doing the right thing, but about doing what appears to be the right thing for his and the league’s image.
He will do what allows him to soliloquize about protecting the shield. It’s as if the league’s logo is a life-form unto itself and not a neat, ultimately irrelevant icon designed by some p.r. flack somewhere – you know, someone just like what Goodell used to be before he improbably tripped up the corporate ladder.
He will talk about how Tom Brady did or did not look him in the eye, dependent upon which action jibes better with his decision. Reading souls is way more fun for Goodell than reading the Wells Report. Probably provides more accurate information, too.
He will do what allows him to throw around the word “integrity’’ until we’re briefly bludgeoned into believing the commissioner might actually possess some. He’s Exhibits A-Z in my newfound theory that the more you talk about integrity, the less you have personally.
He may even reveal that he is posthumously suspending former Raiders quarterback Ken Stabler for all of these reckless transgressions that he is just learning about. Man, if he’d only had the chance to look The Snake in the eye, imagine the truths he could have learned.
What we don’t know is what matters the most around here: Will he reduce Brady’s suspension? And if so, by how many games?
Conventional wisdom suggests that Goodell’s ruling will come down from the ivory tower soon, perhaps as early as Wednesday. That theory is in part based on an offhand remark Goodell made while walking away from a CNBC reporter last week in which he vaguely indicated it could – could — happen this week.
It’s also based on the league’s standard operating procedure when sharing information with the public. If the topic is news the league prefers to downplay, 6 p.m. on a Friday is typically a swell time to issue a press release. Actually, let’s make it 6:30, just in case there’s still a straggling reporter who hasn’t left the office for happy hour yet.
When sharing news it doesn’t mind discussing, the league will take advantage of a slow news day for maximum exposure. Wednesday is the day after the MLB All-Star Game. There is less than nothing going on in the sports world. The NFL would love to steal a Wednesday in the summer.
We’re ready for it, whenever it comes. But what should we be ready for? Goodell’s rulings on various matters traditionally have been scattershot and arbitrary, seemingly based on an often inaccurate reading by the league office of what public reaction will be.
Remember – as if anyone could forget – that former Ravens running back Ray Rice was initially suspended two games for punching out his then-fiancee, now-wife in a casino elevator. It was only after the tsunami of backlash — and the release of video of what happened inside that elevator — that Goodell decided to get tough in the … what did he call it? Right – the “domestic violence space.’’
In the aftermath of that shameful mess, then-Panthers linebacker Greg Hardy was suspended 10 games in April for “conduct detrimental to the league’’ after an investigation into a domestic violence incident with his girlfriend. After his own appeal, Hardy’s suspension was reduced to four games last Friday by an independent arbiter.
Which brings us to Brady, and our collective attempt at speculating with accuracy at what Goodell might do. Brady’s transgression falls under the category of “the ball-deflation space,’’ a misdemeanor at best nowadays, and a moment of charming gamesmanship in another era (namely, Stabler’s). Not even a Jets fan would suggest what he is accused of doing – again, without convincing evidence — belongs in the same category as what Hardy was convicted of doing.
Yet at the moment, the punishments are the same. Four games for Hardy. Four for Tom Brady.
Even Goodell must see the ridiculous imbalance of justice and logic in that.
So does he reduce it to three games? That seems an unlikely scenario, because it seems the most sure-fire way to get Brady to take the league to court beyond not reducing it at all. Brady’s lawyer, Jeffrey Kessler, is an accomplished NFL nemesis, having played a crucial role in getting Goodell’s BountyGate punishments against the New Orleans Saints thrown out in court. It’s hard to figure Goodell, who has been pummeled like a tomato can in matters in which is authority has been challenged in court, desires a rematch.
How about two games? This is the betting man’s pick for how it goes down. It halves the suspension, which looks like a compromise to some degree. It may reduce the possibility of Brady taking it to court. It gets one of the sport’s marquee players on the field for two more games, which the league won’t mind. It also appeases the other 31 franchises, many of whom would like nothing more than to see Tom Brady disappear for a chunk of the season. (It should be noted that the trial balloon for two games was floated in Peter King’s The Monday Morning Quarterback column this week. It’s unknown at this time whether Goodell whispered it into his ear over another bowl of Skyline Chili.)
One game? Well, cutting it to a single game is the most likely way to keep this out of court, and unless the NFL is intent on turning Brady into some kind of martyr – still a distinct possibility — this would make a lot of sense. Goodell could say he’s suspending Brady for refusing to cooperate by handing over the requested information from his cell phone. Brady would in essence be exonerated from any involvement in deflating the balls. It’s not win-win, but it’s not a loss for either side either. It’s palatable. It makes the most sense. Which is as good a reason as any, given whom we’re dealing with here, why it probably won’t happen. It still think he cuts it to two, and Brady tells Kessler he’s not just ready to fight, he wants the fight.
Zero games? That’s a Patriots fan’s pipe dream. Might as well ask him to restore the lost first-round pick, too, which remains the most damaging aspect of the punishment. Goodell is not going to disavow the conclusions and the science (or science-fiction, as it were) of the Wells Report given the resources that were put into it. The league had to pay. Because of that, Brady must pay in a different way.
All of the evidence from his tenure’s controversies suggests that his how Goodell thinks, how he operates, and so as we wait for the ruling, we can never overlook who is doing the ruling.
No matter what Goodell decides, it’s not going to be about doing the right thing.
It never is, never has been. It’s about looking omnipotent, never impotent, even as his precious shield takes another dent from his trusty ball-peen hammer.
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