Here’s what the latest odds say on who the Patriots might draft after first week of free agency
There's a new favorite to be the third overall pick.
Most of the major names in free agency found new homes this past week, with the Patriots being relatively quiet in adding outside talent.
Now, the focus turns back to the NFL Draft in late April. While the Patriots didn’t make a whole lot of noise over the last week, several other teams who are around them in the draft order made some splashes. The Bears added Keenan Allen while the Commanders made a slew of signings, including a quarterback.
But the outside move that could impact the Patriots the most was the Vikings’ deal to get a second first-round pick from the Texans, possibly a sign that they’re trying to move up from the 11th overall pick in the draft.
As more things are starting to fall into place, here’s what the latest odds suggest on who the Patriots might draft at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Odds to be the No. 3 overall pick
Drake Maye: -120
Jayden Daniels: +165
Marvin Harrison Jr.: +350
J.J. McCarthy: +550
There was an interesting change on the odds boards for the favorite to be the No. 2 and 3 overall picks over the last few days. Daniels has surpassed Maye, who was once wildly viewed as the second-best quarterback prospect in the draft, as the favorite to be selected with the No. 2 overall pick, holding -180 odds to Maye’s +145 odds.
That change also caused a flip on the favorite to be the No. 3 overall pick, which the Patriots hold. Maye is now the favorite to be selected at No. 3 after Daniels was the favorite to go there in the leadup to the combine and free agency.
It’s unclear what exactly sparked the recent change. However, the Commanders, who hold the second pick, signed Marcus Mariota at the start of free agency and traded Sam Howell to the Seahawks. There was some speculation that the signing of Mariota could be a precursor to the Commanders’ drafting Daniels as both are mobile threats. They both also have experience quarterbacking a spread offense, which is the scheme Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury typically employs.
So, with Daniels climbing and Caleb Williams seemingly a lock to be the No. 1 overall pick (-1200 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook), Maye naturally slots as the favorite to be the No. 3 overall pick. However, McCarthy’s rise in mock drafts has also been reflected on odds boards as his odds of being a top-three pick have steadily improved. ESPN’s Field Yates has the Vikings trading up to the fifth overall pick to select McCarthy in his latest mock draft.
But what if the Vikings have their eyes set on something bigger and want to try and land one of the perceived top-three quarterback prospects in the draft? Josh McCown, their new quarterbacks coach, coached Maye in high school, drawing an easy connection between the Vikings and the UNC quarterback.
If the Vikings want to reunite McCown with Maye, they’ll likely have to trade up to least the No. 3 overall pick, which could help solidify Maye’s status as the favorite to be the third overall pick even more.
Player to be drafted by the Patriots odds
Jayden Daniels: +160 (second-best odds)
Marvin Harrison Jr.: +350 (second-best odds)
J.J. McCarthy: +550 (fourth-best odds)
Bo Nix: +1100 (fifth-best odds)
DraftKings doesn’t have a direct bet on which player the Patriots will draft, but they have odds on which team a few of the top prospects will be selected by.
As Maye doesn’t have listed odds for that bet on DraftKings, the Patriots aren’t the favorite for any prospect, but they hold some of the best odds for a few other prospects.
Beyond Daniels, they hold the second-best odds to draft Harrison, who’s widely viewed as the best non-quarterback prospect in the draft. The Patriots drafting Harrison could make some sense as he’s also considered to be the best wide receiver prospect in over a decade and the team didn’t add any outside player at the position in free agency. However, the Cardinals are the favorite to draft Harrison (-275) as the vast majority of mock drafts have the Ohio State star being selected fourth overall.
If the Patriots opt to trade down, McCarthy and Nix could be options for them. NFL Mock Draft Database’s consensus mock draft board has McCarthy as the 11th overall pick. The Vikings (+100), Giants (+300), and Broncos (+350) have better odds to select McCarthy. When looking at the draft order, those three teams might be the next three teams after the Patriots that are in need of a quarterback.
NFL Mock Draft Database has Nix projected to be a late first-round, early second-round pick with the Broncos. The Vikings (+200), Broncos (+200), Raiders (+425), Giants (+900), and Saints (+950) have better odds than the Patriots to draft Nix.
Other notable player to be drafted by the Patriots odds
Xavier Worthy: +800 (tied for fourth-best odds)
Michael Penix Jr.: +1600 (tied for seventh-best odds)
Beyond their top selection, the Patriots are also among the favorites to land a pair of other notable prospects who could be in range with their second- and third-round picks.
Worthy, who broke the record for the fastest 40-yard dash at the combine, could be a part of the Patriots’ solution to fix their several-season-long woes at wide receiver. In a loaded draft class for wide receivers, NFL Mock Draft Database’s consensus mock draft has Worthy being selected by the Chiefs with the final pick of the first round, just two picks prior to the Patriots’ second-round pick. Most of the other favorites to draft Worthy either pick late in the first round (Chiefs +500; Bills +550) or early in the second round (Cardinals +700; Panthers +800).
Meanwhile, Penix is projected to go later than some of the other top quarterbacks. NFL Mock Draft Database’s consensus mock draft has Penix as the 44th overall pick. Most of the other favorites to select Penix are teams that are selecting in the middle of the first and second rounds, such as the Vikings (+250), Seahawks (+400), Raiders (+450), and Broncos (+500).
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