What fantasy football experts are saying about Sony Michel for the 2019 season
"A disconcertingly wide range of outcomes seem to await those who draft Michel."
The Patriots made an expanded commitment to running the football last season. Of New England’s previous six seasons, the only one with more rushing attempts came in 2016 — when Tom Brady was suspended for four games.
Whether that trend continues remains to be seen, as Bill Belichick and his coaching staff are unpredictable. Still, one running back who figures to feature prominently is Sony Michel.
The 24-year-old running back is entering his second season. As a rookie, Michel, a first-round pick out of Georgia, played in 13 games during the regular season, finishing with 209 carries for 931 yards (4.5 yards per carry). Both of those totals were more than double any other New England back.
In the playoffs, it was Michel who led the Patriots’ attack. He averaged 112 yards rushing per game and notched six touchdowns, including the only one in Super Bowl LIII.
Despite his largely positive rookie season, the 2019 fantasy football forecast for Michel is mixed.
Here’s what experts are saying:
The common refrains are Michel’s risk of injuries and his lack of receptions in the passing game. As ESPN’s Eric Karabell noted, a point-per-reception format might not be good news.
“We know Michel has knee problems and — repeat, nobody — expects them to go away,” Karabell wrote. “The Patriots drafted Michel’s potential replacement in Damien Harris and, you might have heard, they have a tendency for switching up their running back touches from week to week, sans warning. In addition, Michel caught seven passes last season. Seven.”
Still, the threat of Harris, a 2019 third-round pick, doesn’t appear to be too great so far in training camp, as Boston Herald writer Kevin Duffy observed:
We’ve seen very little from Damien Harris this summer. Just not getting many reps. Pretty clear that Sony is the No. 1 RB right now.
— Kevin Duffy (@KevinRDuffy) August 12, 2019
Michel’s position as the team’s top running back has been a theme at Patriots camp so far this preseason. On top of doing some one-on-one work with Brady early in camp, his role is reportedly still expanding.
“Sony Michel has seen an uptick in snaps and targets almost daily as he heads into his second year,” wrote Boston Globe Patriots reporter Jim McBride. “It has become evident that the Patriots are trying to make him a more well-rounded back to keep defenses guessing.”
Getting more receptions in 2019 would cause a serious increase in Michel’s fantasy value as that was essentially the major hole in his stats a year ago.
Another factor to consider is the opposition Michel will face. According to research from UPI, the Patriots will face eight of the league’s worst-run defenses from 2018. That’s tied with the Jets for the most by any team in the NFL. If Michel’s role expands, it could be at a time when New England is simultaneously going up against weaker-run defenses.
Yet the concerns over Michel’s knee will linger, meaning that there’s still a potentially larger degree of risk involved with drafting him in fantasy. Ultimately, such a risk could pay off in a big way in 2019, as Washington Post fantasy football writer Des Bieler concluded.
“A disconcertingly wide range of outcomes seem to await those who draft Michel and his history of knee issues,” said Bieler, “but at his average draft position, it’s not a bad roll of the dice at all.”
