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Predicting Red Sox games so far is like predicting April weather
Just when you think they've figured it out, they lay an egg. Just when you think they're slumping, they respond with conviction.
COMMENTARY
Trying to predict what will happen in a given Red Sox game so far this season is a lot like trying to predict what will happen with the weather on a given April day in New England.
Just when you think the sun is finally here to stay, the weather and baseball gods hit you with a 38-degree hailstorm in the form of a nightmarish 13-6 loss. Just when you think that proverbial 38-degree hailstorm is here to stay, they respond with a necessary 9-5 win and you’re suddenly drenched in sweat in your parka in the 75-degree heat.
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Given the fact that they’re 1-4 in one-run games, have the second-fewest home runs in baseball, and Garrett Crochet has a 7.58 ERA, it’s somewhat remarkable that the Red Sox are just two games out of the Wild Card as of Thursday afternoon.
That Wilyer Abreu is hitting .333, Connelly Early has a 2.29 ERA, and they’re 5-0 when leading after six innings, it’s somewhat remarkable that they’re 7-11 and in last place in the American League East.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Red Sox figure it out and ascend into a playoff team. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them continue to stumble and finish last in the division for the fourth time in seven years. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them show some flashes, then regress, then show some flashes again, and finish right at .500 in third or fourth place.
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What would be surprising is if there are no more surprises along the way. With this team, at least so far, it’s wise to expect the unexpected. Whatever you think will transpire, there’s a pretty good chance it will be the opposite. That’s why we watch, right?
With that said, here are three trends to monitor that could dictate how the rest of the season unfolds:
When it comes to homers, it’s a D’oh! so far.
One of the main issues for the Red Sox right now is that they’re losing the home-run battle by a significant margin.
Boston has allowed 25 homers (the third most in baseball) and only hit 12 as a team.
Abreu and Willson Contreras have three apiece, and everyone else has six combined. The Red Sox were banking on players like Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, and Ceddanne Rafaela to take a leap in that area, thinking that compiling many decent home-run hitters would compensate for the absence of a true go-to power hitter.
So far, that strategy has backfired. The lineup is respectable, but there’s a noticeable lack of firepower that would go a long way in helping this team find that elusive consistency. Maybe they should wear World Baseball Classic jerseys under their Red Sox jerseys and see what happens.
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Then there’s the other end of it. Greg Weissert, Sonny Gray, Ryan Watson, and yes, Crochet, have all surrendered three homers apiece. Ranger Suarez, Brayan Bello, and Johan Oviedo have given up two each. Seven others have allowed one. It’s only mid-April.
For those doing the math at home, yes, they’re allowing 1.4 home runs per game and responding with an average of two homers in a three-game series. This team is built to play small ball, string singles and doubles together, and pitch. While the offensive side of it is of course an issue, the pitching component is arguably a bigger concern right now, relative to preseason expectations and given the roster construction.
OK, but at least they’re fielding right?
Surely, if they’re struggling in so many areas, they’ve at least improved in the field?
Hate to break it to you, but the Red Sox are fourth-to-last in fielding percentage (.978) and are showing no signs of trending positively in that regard.
The lack of home runs is one thing, but this team was at least supposed to be able to field at a higher level. So far, it’s been just the opposite. Trevor Story has four errors, and Marcelo Mayer, Carlos Narvaez, Connor Wong, Anthony, and Caleb Durbin all have two apiece.
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Story has started to hit better as of late, but Durbin is still at .127 with no homers. It wasn’t fair to expect him to replace Alex Bregman seamlessly, but he would be the first to admit he’s underachieved. He hasn’t exactly helped himself in the field, either.
Two plays in the field summed up the season so far. There was Anthony’s errant throw from left field that led to an additional run, and the infamous “turning zero” double-play attempt that turned into a lowlight.
If they want to establish themselves as a team that doesn’t beat itself and prevails in tight games, making significant strides in the field would be an ideal place to start.
No way, Crochet
It’s still difficult to fathom that Crochet allowed 10 runs in a game. To quote LeBron James … “Not five, not six, not seven!” … 10!
The tumultuous outing was the worst of his career, and will almost certainly be an outlier, but Crochet needs to ensure it’s not the start of a troubling trend. He prides himself on yielding a near-automatic win, and so far, the Red Sox are 2-2 in games he’s started.
Let’s put away the Cy Young talk for now. Maybe he’ll creep his way back into the picture, but at the moment, the Red Sox simply need him to return to form. It’s unrealistic to expect perfection, but it’s fair to expect more reliability than he’s shown so far.
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The main issue for the whole team right now is a lack of consistency, and Crochet’s topsy-turvy start is a microcosm of that trend.
It’s a long season, and this team is fully capable of turning it around, but the Red Sox have to stop beating themselves soon to have any chance of avoiding another last-place finish.
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