Beware Betts’ Gaudy Spring Training Stats
All hail Mookie Betts.
The Red Sox rookie center fielder is lighting up spring training, hitting at a .471 clip with nine extra base hits and nine runs scored in just 11 games. He’s leading the Grapefruit League with 16 hits, and his superior performance in Fort Myers, combined with his impressive numbers in 52 games last season, has convinced what feels like an overwhelming majority that he’s not only the Red Sox Opening Day center fielder and leadoff hitter, but that he’s completely untouchable in any and all trade talks.
But before we coronate Betts and his grand total of 213 regular season major league plate appearances into “can’t miss’’ status, let’s take a deep breath and examine the past two Red Sox spring trainings, both of which featured big-time, out-of-nowhere performances from outfielders, each of which wound up quickly turning into mush.
2013: Having never played a single inning above Double-A, Jackie Bradley Jr. entered spring training among the longest of long shots to break camp with the big club. But after blowing up to the tune of a 26-for-62 Grapefruit League campaign, a .419 average, he started in Yankee Stadium on Opening Day en route to completely flaming out at the plate as a big leaguer.
In 164 games over the past two seasons, Bradley, 24, has an OPS of .548. Fangraphs lists his offensive rating for 2014 at a stunning -23.9. His combined offensive WAR in his two major league seasons is -0.9. That’s not good.
Bradley’s spectacular, other-worldly defense couldn’t even save him from a demotion to Pawtucket last season, and if he hangs on as a fringe major leaguer, it will be for that reason. It seems a fair bet to assume that in the crowded Red Sox outfield as currently constituted, he’ll have a tough time sticking.
2014: Former All-Star Grady Sizemore came to the Red Sox on a flier last offseason, signing a $750,000 deal loaded with incentives in an attempt to resurrect a career ruined by injuries. The low-risk move looked to pay off in a major way during spring training last season, when he hit .310 in 42 Grapefruit League at-bats. He supplanted Bradley as the Sox starting center fielder (a job Bradley looked primed to capture after Jacoby Ellsbury left for the Yankees in free agency), then homered on Opening Day in Baltimore, adding plenty of fuel to the fire that he’d regained his old form and was ready to justify the Sox’ faith in him.
And that was the end of that. Sizemore peaked on that Monday afternoon at Camden Yards, ultimately batting .216 with two homers and 15 RBIs in 205 plate appearances over 52 games. After going 4-for-30 in 30 June at-bats and needing just 20 plate appearances to trigger a $250,000 roster bonus, Sizemore was designated for assignment on June 18.
Will Betts fall victim to the same fates that undercut both Bradley and Sizemore? It’s hard to say. But for all his brilliance this March and each subsequent glowing review, there’s plenty of evidence to support the idea that gaudy spring training numbers from Red Sox outfielders should be looked at and contemplated with a few grains of salt.
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