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With Joel Embiid out, these Celtics better pummel the 76ers on the glass
Rebounding and second-chance points could be key for Boston's offense in this series.
COMMENTARY
One of the biggest indicators that a development program is working is the ability to transform weaknesses into strengths.
Heading into this year, rebounding was an area of serious concern for the Celtics. They had lost Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, and Luke Kornet.
Neemias Queta struggled to crack the playoff rotation last season. Luka Garza was waived by the Wolves. With Jayson Tatum out of the lineup, the Celtics’ best two returning rebounders at the beginning of the year were guards Derrick White and Jaylen Brown. They had yet to add Nikola Vucevic, who would be acquired at the trade deadline.
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Crashing the glass was a struggle at the beginning of the year, but over the course of the season, the Celtics became one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA. They finished third in the league in rebounds per game during the regular season. They were also No. 5 in second-chance points.
This has the potential to be a major advantage against Philadelphia, which will be without former league MVP Joel Embiid for at least Game 1 and maybe longer as he recovers from an emergency appendectomy. Embiid averaged 7.7 rebounds this season, his lowest mark since his rookie year. But that was still good for second-best on the team behind Andre Drummond’s 8.4.
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The Celtics out-rebounded Philadelphia in all four games during the regular season. The margin was relatively close with Embiid playing in the first two games, but Boston grabbed at least nine more rebounds per game over the last two with Embiid on the bench.
Even with Embiid, the Sixers aren’t a great rebounding team. They were 18th in rebounding, and they gave up 15.8 second-chance points per game, which was 24th.
The games between Boston and Philadelphia were still remarkably close. Three of the four were decided by two points or less. During the series finale, which Boston won by 16, the Celtics grabbed 59 rebounds while Philadelphia had 22.
One of the major concerns with the Celtics over the last few seasons has been how outside shooting struggles – which are bound to happen at some point during the postseason – affect the rest of the offense. They showed last postseason against the Knicks that it can be a recipe for blowing huge leads.
Points have to come from somewhere, and the Celtics are in the bottom five of the league in fast-break points, points off of turnovers, and points in the paint. They finished dead last in free-throw attempts per game.
So, this is a team that doesn’t excel at outrunning teams to get easy buckets or getting to the line. They rely heavily on making tough looks. They’ve dropped to 19th in the league in points per game, down from eighth last season.
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They get 40.4 percent of their points from 3-pointers, the fourth-highest mark in the league. Another 7.9 percent of their points come from mid-ranges, which is No. 7 in the league. So, that’s almost half of their points coming from 3-pointers and mid-ranges, which are usually low percentage shots.
However, this is a make-or-miss league, and the Celtics remain quite efficient at making the looks that they get. They were No. 2 in offensive efficiency, No. 4 in net rating, and in the top-10 for 3-point and free-throw percentage. The volume of 3-point attempts dragged their overall field-goal percentage down to 16th.
Still, one of the concerns about facing a team like Philadelphia, which has shown that it can hang around late in games, is that relying so heavily on outside shooting is a calculated gamble. Most of the time, it works for the Celtics. If it goes wrong at an unfortunate time, it can derail the entire season.
The Celtics often make up for this because they committed the fewest turnovers of any team in the league this season, and they allowed the fewest points in the paint for opponents. They take care of the ball and they protect the rim at an elite level, and both are really important.
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So is the ability to get easy looks in clutch situations, and this Celtics team should be able to get plenty against this Philadelphia team, especially without Embiid roaming the paint.
They’ve turned a key weakness into a strength, and it’s a big part of why they’ve been so successful this season. Fifty-six wins and home-field advantage thanks to the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference show that their approach generally works for them.
Adding Tatum, their best rebounder, for the stretch run of the regular season as well as the postseason makes them even better.
But things have the potential to go haywire, especially in the playoffs.
The Celtics are going to take their threes and mid-ranges. It’s what they do. However, they need to be intentional about chasing down the misses. It could be their best chance for getting easy points against a team that likes to hang around in close games.
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