What you need to know before Celtics preseason begins
The regular season is just around the corner.
COMMENTARYYou’ve been busy this summer. The only thing hotter than the temperatures has been the Red Sox, so Celtics-every-day folks like me understand that you might not be familiar with what’s been brewing behind the scenes. The Celtics essentially got the band back together for another run, which means they’ll be really good. It doesn’t mean things are perfect, though. With training camp around the corner, it’s time to get you caught up.
Wait, where’d he go?
Point guard Shane Larkin was a spark plug last season, and his shoulder injury might have been the breaking point that cost the Celtics a chance to go to the Finals. Unfortunately, Larkin was a one-hit wonder in Boston. The Celtics moved on to former EuroLeaguer Brad Wanamaker (more on him shortly), leaving Larkin to find another job, which he did in Turkey. Center Greg Monroe also shipped out of Boston and will be screaming “And one!!” in a Toronto Raptors uniform next season. Monroe, who joined the Celtics in February, signed a minimum deal to come off the Raptors bench. The Celtics moved on from Abdel Nader as well. He was traded to Oklahoma City for Rodney Purvis, who was subsequently cut. Two-way player Kadeem Allen was also cut. He signed a training camp deal with the New York Knicks.
And who are these guys?
Wanamaker is a guard who will replace Larkin, but he’s a much different player. Like Larkin, Wanamaker had been playing overseas. Unlike Larkin, Wanamaker is 6-foot-4, so he can be used in different roles. He’s had a lot of success overseas, winning multiple championships and earning Finals MVPs in Germany (where he was teammates with Celtics center Daniel Theis) and in Turkey. He’ll be wearing No. 9 this season. The Celtics selected Robert Williams, a 6-foot-10 forward out of Texas A&M, with the 27th selection in the 2018 NBA Draft. Williams had been projected to go much higher in the previous year’s draft, but he went back to school and questions about his work ethic dragged him down the board. He has a lot of promise as a pick-setting, rim-running big who can block shots and finish in transition, but he missed a conference call, his wallet, and a flight to Boston within weeks of being drafted. Williams played briefly in summer league, but he’s been dealing with knee tendinitis that has limited his full basketball participation since mid-July.
Injury updates
Coach Brad Stevens said Wednesday everyone will be a “full go” when camp opens. Forward Gordon Hayward has been playing 5-on-5, and both he and Kyrie Irving have been seen in workout videos looking a lot like their old selves. Stevens’s comment means Theis, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last season, will be ready as well.
Let’s talk money
Shooting guard Marcus Smart signed a four-year, $52 million contract to remain with the Celtics next season. It’s a fully-guaranteed contract that, barring a trade, keeps Smart around long term. Center Aron Baynes also returned, on a two-year, $10.6 million dollar deal. The second year of his contract is a player option, which means Baynes can become a free agent next season if he has a tremendous year and feels like he can cash in somewhere else or angle for more money in Boston.
Jabari Bird, who was a two-way player last season, signed a three-year deal with the Celtics this summer. His recent domestic violence arrest could, pending an NBA investigation, result in the contract being voided. If not, the Celtics will have to pay him $1.3 million this season — even if they cut him. League and collective bargaining rules put the NBA in charge of this investigation, so the Celtics will have to wait until that is complete to make their own decision.
The Celtics’ payroll is currently about $3 million over the tax line. The team has said they’re willing to pay the tax, but many are wondering whether they’ll try to avoid it this season to push off a much more punitive “repeater tax,” which is essentially a higher tax rate for teams who’ve been taxpayers for at least three of four seasons.
To do so would likely require a trade. Luxury tax is calculated at the end of the season, so the Celtics have time.
Storylines to watch for
Who starts and who finishes has been the biggest debate of the summer. Yes, this falls under “nice problem to have,” but it is still a problem. The returns of Hayward and Irving means the Celtics have their two best players back in the lineup. It also means two guys who had been starting need to take on new roles. Boston’s best defensive lineups last season included Baynes, so Stevens has some decisions to make. Will he start Baynes right away or will he use him situationally? If he starts Baynes, who comes off the bench? There is a lot of promise for this team going into camp, so the guys are saying the right things right now. Jayson Tatum has already expressed a willingness to come off the bench if needed.“I understand how deep our team is,” he told Boston.com’s Nicole Yang earlier this summer. “I just care about winning and doing what I can while I’m on the floor.”Keep in mind that Stevens is a notorious lineup tinkerer early in seasons. His approach has been to use the early part of the season to experiment with different players to see how they’ll mesh. Stevens will probably want to preserve his stars for a highly anticipated deep playoff run, which means there will be more minutes to go around regardless of who starts. Who finishes games might be a bigger issue than who starts. Smart didn’t get that huge contract to not be on the floor when he’s been most successful. It will be very interesting to see how Stevens approaches the ends of games, especially in different scenarios.If the Celtics need to make a comeback, for example, do they sit Smart to go with better shooters? Or do they keep him in down the stretch to help make those game-changing plays he’s known for? If the Celtics need a stop, do they sit two of their lesser defenders in favor of Smart and Baynes? Will someone get upset if he’s not on the floor for a crucial moment? Stevens also enters this season with the best team he’s ever coached. He’s never gone into a season with higher expectations, which is new for him. As great as Stevens has been, this challenge will undoubtedly present some unforeseen scenarios.Stevens is entering his sixth year as the Celtics’ coach and as the NBA’s fifth most-tenured coach (tied with former Celtics coach Doc Rivers). We’ll definitely need to watch how he handles the potential pitfalls. Another thing Stevens might have to handle is a mid-season trade. It’s definitely worth watching what Boston does to either get under the tax line or acquire another star player in an effort to challenge the Warriors. It’s very likely Boston and Toronto will be the Eastern Conference finalists. Boston, assuming the team actually stays healthy this season, has the horses to get past the Raptors. They even match up well with Golden State. The question at that point is whether their depth is enough to beat the Warriors. Smart’s contract does keep him in Boston for the long run, but there’s an asterisk at the end of that sentence. Smart’s contract finally gives Boston a mid-level type deal necessary to match salaries in a mega-deal. Should an Anthony Davis-type star come available at the trade deadline, Boston is well-positioned to make a very competitive offer. It may not be likely, but one of the side effects of the Smart signing is Boston’s sudden ability to make a great offer that makes sense for all sides. As I mentioned before, there is the possibility of a smaller deal to keep the Celtics under the tax line this year. They don’t seem fussed about being a taxpayer, and they may have a plan to duck under it next year somehow, but there’s no reason to pay more money for a team if you don’t have to. It’s worth watching if Marcus Morris or Guerschon Yabusele end up in rumors during trade season, usually beginning on December 15 when league rules allow free agents signed over the summer to be traded.
Quick player-by-player notes
Gordon Hayward: I’m particularly interested in seeing how his jumper has evolved over the course of his rehab. He’s had a year to tinker with his release as he rehabbed, and he allegedly has developed a slightly quicker release with more range. It’s going to be interesting to see how many Steph Curry-type shots he takes. I’m betting he toys with it in the preseason.Kyrie Irving: People are watching him for any clue that he might bolt after this season. Conventional wisdom suggests his best bet is to stay with the Celtics, but Irving is anything but conventional. Next summer is going to be wildly interesting because it seems like half the league is a free agent, including some big names and good friends of Irving. I’m curious to see how he handles the constant questioning of his future. Al Horford: I have a feeling this season will sow more division over Horford’s value to the team. He’s probably going to sacrifice his own personal stats more than anyone because that’s how he is and he probably feels like Irving, Hayward, Tatum, and Jaylen Brown will benefit more from his passing than his shooting. He’ll be as important as ever, but his statistics will likely suffer. Jayson Tatum: I’m curious to see how aggressive he is this season with the addition of Hayward. The suggestion of him coming off the bench is intriguing because he’s very much the centerpiece of Boston’s future, and that’s not a normal course to take with a young future star. However, it might be the best way to get him going offensively. I’m very much on the fence about this idea, but a McHale-like bench role early in his career is very, very intriguing.Jaylen Brown: Here is how his season should go: Defend like a madman, cause turnovers, and get out in transition to catch lobs and finish breaks. In the half court, find the corners and become a catch-and-shoot monster. When defenders are too aggressive on a closeout, attack and dunk on everybody. If he can find a way to make passes and get assists on those drives, Brown can be an All Star.Marcus Smart: The contract gives him security, but he’s an emotional guy. I really do wonder what will happen if he’s not on the floor down the stretch, especially if they lose a game where he thought he could help. Terry Rozier: He is biding his time and saying all the right things. This might be his last season in Boston because he’s just too good to be a long-term third string guard. He needs to become a more efficient scorer, especially to maximize his time this season. Rozier will spend this season as insurance against injury, a trade involving Smart, or Irving’s departure. I’ve long said that only two of the Irving/Smart/Rozier trio will be in Boston to start the 2019-20 season. We’ll see if that remains the case.Marcus Morris: he might be the guy with the most to lose this season. He’s a free agent next summer, so he probably doesn’t want to sacrifice too much. At the same time, the rising tide does raise all boats, and his profile as a team-friendly scoring option off the bench could earn him some extra cash next summer. Still, I see him as the most likely candidate to be moved if the Celtics decide the tax matters this season.Aron Baynes: The number one question with Baynes, to me, is: “Was that three-point shooting you showed us in the playoffs for real?” If Baynes can actually be a close-to-league-average threat from the corners, then it changes so much about this team. If defenses suddenly have to account for Baynes from three, then watch out, because the Celtics offense will simply be unguardable. Semi Ojeleye: He can have a nice role as a three-and-D guy if he develops a more consistent jumper. He worked on that as well as driving and passing this summer. If he can knock down shots, he adds some very important depth to this bench. Guerschon Yabusele: Similar to Ojeleye, he needs to become more consistent. Ojeleye is a better defender, and Yabusele needs to improve that a lot more to be useful to Boston. Daniel Theis: Losing Theis hurt Boston a lot more than people realize. He is a floor-spacing big who can block shots and finish lobs in pick-and-rolls. He’s already the type of player that we hope Robert Williams can be someday. The question remains, though, about how many minutes Theis can get. He’s a restricted free agent next year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he draws interest. He’s got a valuable skill set. Robert Williams: It’s no secret his career got off to a bad start. For a guy who had maturity and work ethic issues, it was the Celtics equivalent of “Sideshow Bob” stepping on rakes. Williams seems better now, but it’s worth watching how this kid grows into a pro alongside strong, positive influences in the Celtics locker room. Brad Wanamaker: He’s an end-of-bench guy but he could get some early run just so Stevens knows what he has in him. I remember reacting very dismissively to the Larkin signing a year ago, and he turned out to be pretty important. Wanamaker may never make an impact, but he has been a winner and clutch performer in the second-best basketball league in the world. It’s hard to imagine there won’t be some role for him somehow.You are now ready for training camp. This is going to be an exciting season where we’ll find out the answers to all these questions and the many more that pop up over the course of the year.
