Three scenarios that could play out for Celtics on draft night
COMMENTARY
I suppose Celtics fans will be left with some level of disappointment tonight if general manager Danny Ainge does not pull off any transactions of significance during the NBA Draft Thursday night.
He’s hinted, without spilling any detail, that some enticing possibilities may present themselves, and the Celtics’ basketball boss has made it clear around the league that he’s open for business.
If the draft begins and ends and 60 players are selected without the Celtics doing anything beyond making their four picks (Nos. 16, 28, 33 and 45) or moving up and down a few spots, sure, I can see how that will feel like a letdown.
I’m not sure it actually will be, though – there’s so much that can happen tonight that even the worst-case for how it all plays out for the Celtics is relatively appealing. You know what’s a letdown? Being the team that Luke Ridnour ultimately ends up staying with.
Let’s take a look at three possible scenarios, from most to least compelling – but with the acknowledgement that the least-compelling still makes for an interesting night for the Celtics, even if it’s not instantly fulfilling.
A BLOCKBUSTER FOR BOOGIE
Boogie Cousins, the Kings’ preternaturally talented and occasionally petulant 24-year-old center, might be available due to George Karl’s ego, which potentially puts Ainge in a position to pull off a heist of Auerbachian proportions – that is, if the Lakers, with more immediately appealing assets to offer, don’t pull it off first. It would be a drag if a player the Celtics clearly have coveted for a long time ends up in LA instead.
But should the Celtics be willing to put together a blockbuster proposal for Cousins? Ab-so-lute-ly. Yes. YES. Sure, he can be a pouty pain-in-the-neck, and he’ll drive you crazy some nights when he’s distracted by the referees. He’s also an incredible talent, one of the top half-dozen to dozen players in the league in terms of skill, and when you have a chance in this star-driven league to acquire a player of that magnitude and ability before he even enters his prime, you must make every attempt to do so.
To put it another way: It’s what Red would have done. He would give any gifted headcase a chance. Robert Parish was regarded as a dog in Golden State. Dennis Johnson’s petulance got him traded from Seattle to Phoenix, where he was involved in an embarrassing cocaine scandal. Red gave a burned-out Pete Maravich his last shot.
Cousins wouldn’t arrive with baggage comparable to those guys. He’s immature. A lot of 24-year-olds are. If/when he grows up, he’ll be one of the league’s top 5-10 players, and at a premium position. Yes, you trade for Boogie Cousins. There’s risk, but the reward is so much greater.
(By the way, if Felger and Mazz, who were using two-year-old stories to dump on Cousins yesterday, have seen him play once between them, my name is Kristaps Porzingis.)
TRADING UP FOR A PLAYER THEY COVET
The most interesting scenario, and perhaps the most plausible, too. If the Knicks do something screwy at No. 4 and take Frank Kaminsky or Jud Buechler (don’t put such a bold idea past Phil Jackson), that could lead to chaos with teams trying to trade up to get a player projected to go higher. The Celtics will be right in the mix there, and they most likely will be trying to move up anyway.
What’s truly fascinating right now is that no one seems to have a clear sense of Ainge’s player preferences, who he likes and who he has no interest in whatsoever. Willie Cauley-Stein makes sense speculatively, but is he healthy? Is Ainge as enamored with Justise Winslow as many of us are, myself included? Does he like Bobby Portis, or maybe Myles Turner, or is there someone Ainge covets that none of us have considered? Can’t wait to find out. He’s usually pretty candid once the draft is over.
I can tell you this much: I’ve seen a couple of mock drafts that have the Celtics taking Wisconsin’s Sam Dekker. That would shock me. He can’t shoot.
What wouldn’t shock me: The Celtics using one of those final two picks on Notre Dame/Arlington’s Pat Connaughton. I know, kind of a Celtics cliché there, but like Ainge himself, he’s a two-sport standout who is tough as hell and a much better basketball athlete than he gets credit for.
STANDING PAT
Ainge has said he doesn’t want to use all four picks, and that makes sense. The roster already has quantity in terms of useful players; what it needs is more high quality. Still, I look at how the Celtics are situated entering what looks like a fairly deep draft, and it reminds me of 2004 a little bit.
That year, the Celtics had picks 15, 24, 25 and 40. They ended up with Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen and Justin Reed (the latter of whom went three picks before Trevor Ariza). Two of those players are still thriving in the NBA, and Jefferson was the center piece of the franchise-altering Kevin Garnett trade.
I don’t think it’s setting the bar too low to suggest that if the Celtics do not trade for Boogie Cousins tonight, coming away with a draft pick or two who would help them consummate a trade for the next star to become available would not be a disappointment, but progress in what is a long process. Using their picks to acquire more young talent is not the next-best thing. But it’s not a bad thing, and it should be a fascinating night no matter what.
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