Why a bridge deal may be the solution for the Bruins and David Pastrnak
This originally appeared in this week’s Sunday Hockey Notes.
Bruins GM Don Sweeney and J.P. Barry, David Pastrnak’s agent, have been committed to a long-term extension. The Bruins’ have offered six years at $36 million. They have a little less than a month to continue talking in this manner to sign Pastrnak in time for training camp.
But if the difference of opinion persists and the sides agree that having Pastrnak in camp is the priority, a bridge deal may be the solution. It could be the answer to two issues: Leon Draisaitl’s eight-year, $68 million extension and Brad Marchand’s eight-year, $49 million contract.
The former deal gave Barry more artillery to his argument of a market shift. An example of the earlier template was the six-year, $36 million contract — the comparable the Bruins were using — that Filip Forsberg signed with Nashville on June 27, 2016.
But teams have handed out more cash and security this summer. Evgeny Kuznetsov, using the KHL as leverage, signed for eight years and $62.4 million on July 2. Twenty-six days later, Ryan Johansen scored an eight-year, $64 million payday. Draisaitl was the latest and most relevant comparable to Pastrnak (they have identical 0.72 point-per-game rates over three seasons), indicating that teams are comfortable with eight-year term when six was the previous going rate. Accordingly, when two more years of potential unrestricted free agency are locked up, the salary rises.
According to chatter around the league, one reason Edmonton gave Draisaitl $8.5 million annually was to place him closer to Connor McDavid’s $12.5 million annual paycheck, which becomes effective in 2018-19. Even if all agree that McDavid is a prodigy, it would not have served GM Peter Chiarelli well if he classified Draisaitl, under the previous six-times-six format, as someone who is $6.5 million less of a player than No. 97.
Pastrnak, an offense-first right wing taken 22 picks after Draisaitl, may not have his peer’s all-around game. But numbers are numbers, and they say the two are not that far apart.
Draisaitl represents Pastrnak’s upper limit. Marchand is also another comparable, albeit in a different way.
The Bruins are wary of signing Pastrnak to more than Marchand. In some ways, it’s understandable. Marchand is the better player. He was the best all-around left wing in the league last year. His $6.125 million AAV represents below-market value. That’s only so because of give and take. Marchand gave the Bruins a break on his annual cap hit. He took term in return.
But Barry can point to David Krejci’s six-year, $43.5 million contract to dismiss the Bruins’ argument on salary structure. If the 31-year-old Krejci is worth $7.25 million annually, then a 21-year-old sharpshooter like Pastrnak could ask for more.
Marchand will be 36 in the final season of his contract. If his on-ice metabolism is still revving as high then as it is now, the league should check him for a spare battery. For the Bruins to lock in Marchand at a team-friendly AAV, they had to give him years beyond his window of expected peak performance.
The more accurate way to measure Marchand’s contract is over its first five years, when he’ll collect $35 million in salary and is granted a full no-movement clause. Marchand will be 33 at the conclusion of the five-year segment, still within expectations of high-end performance. Even if his legs slow slightly, Marchand’s strength, competitiveness, shot, and hockey sense should keep him in top-six duty.
Over the final three years, Marchand will earn $14 million total and will have modified no-trade protection. The dropoff ($4,166,667 average annually) reflects the projected decline of any 28-year-old wing over the course of eight-year term.
No such dip should be built into Pastrnak’s extension. Even if the right wing scores max term of eight years, Pastrnak will be 28 upon its conclusion, still very much within his window of goal-scoring prowess. This is the time when players are most productive and should be paid accordingly. The Bruins are already paying nearly $10 million annually for David Backes (33) and Matt Beleskey (29), whose best years are behind them.
If the Bruins insist on using Marchand’s AAV as Pastrnak’s upper limit, $7 million, not $6.125 million, should be the adjusted ceiling. If Barry considers that threshold too low in light of Draisaitl’s extension, then a bridge deal may be the only way to address the disagreement.
It’s not what either side wants. But unless compromise takes place, it may be the only fix to the problem.
