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Oscars 2025 predictions: Full list of who will win each category
After a raft of controversies around the Best Picture nominees, the 2025 Oscars could offer plenty of surprises.
If you’re looking for an edge on your 2025 Oscars predictions before the ceremony this Sunday on ABC at 7 p.m., there are three things you should know: The favorites win the majority of the time, the guilds representing the various branches of Academy voters usually know best, and the Best Picture category generally remains the hardest to predict.
Since expanding the field from five to (up to) 10 movies for the 82nd Academy Awards in 2009, the Academy Award for Best Picture has had more notable upsets than any major category. Unlike the other awards, the Academy uses ranked choice voting to determine the Best Picture winner, with voters able to list all of the nominees in order of preference. That’s led to some surprises, from “Spotlight” besting “The Revenant” to the chaos that ensued when “Moonlight” upset runaway favorite “La La Land.”
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This year, the frontrunner appears to be “Anora,” thanks to its Best Picture wins from the Directors Guild and Producers Guild. But Sean Baker’s drama about an exotic dancer’s whirlwind romance with a wealthy client is on shaky ground, and could be threatened by papal drama “Conclave,” Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown,” or architectural epic “The Brutalist.”
Less likely is former frontrunner “Emilia Perez,” which has been engulfed in controversy ever since the nominations were announced in January. But don’t count out the growing international branch of Academy voters, who may stick with French director Jacques Audiard.
To help you make sense of this year’s Academy Awards — as well as give you some of my own personal picks as Boston.com’s chief movie scribe — here is my full list of 2025 Oscars predictions, including who I think will win every category, who I wish would win, and who was snubbed of a deserving nomination.
2025 Oscars Coverage
2025 Oscars predictions
Best Picture
Nominees: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Emilia Pérez,” “I’m Still Here,” “Nickel Boys,” “The Substance,” “Wicked.”
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Will win: “Anora”
Should win: “Anora”
Snubbed: “Challengers”
“Anora” was my pick for the best movie of 2024 back in December, and seeing it glide through awards season unscathed has been a pleasure. If Mikey Madison’s feisty stripper with a heart of gold proves too risqué, “Conclave” is a sneaky contender, having won Best Picture from both the Screen Actors Guild and the BAFTAs.
Amazon made a strategic error releasing the Boston-filmed tennis drama “Challengers” in March instead of closer to awards season, when it could have made some noise.
Best Actor
Nominees: Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”), Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”), Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”), Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”)
Will win: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Should win: Brody
Snubbed: Josh O’Connor, “Challengers”
Setting aside the controversy about the use of A.I. to tweak his Hungarian accent, Brody’s performance as architect (and Holocaust survivor) Lazlo Toth is unmissable. It will be interesting to see if Brody, who was 29 when he won his first Best Actor statuette for “The Pianist,” holds off 29-year-old Chalamet from matching his feat.
All three leads in “Challengers” give stellar performances, but O’Connor shines in particular as the has-been tennis pro who is coasting on family money, innate athleticism, and hangdog charm.
Best Actress
Nominees: Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”), Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”), Mikey Madison (“Anora”), Demi Moore (“The Substance”), Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”)
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Will win: Moore
Should win: Madison
Snubbed: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Hard Truths”
Best Actress is currently a dead heat between Mikey Madison in “Anora” and Demi Moore in “The Substance.” Each have won a number of precursor awards, but Moore seems to have the edge on sentiment alone, as someone who has worked in Hollywood for decades and never been seen as an “awards” actress.
“Hard Truths” is anchored by one of the most bitter, acidic lead performances in recent memory from Marianne Jean-Baptiste, who refused to let audiences (and Academy voters) off the hook by making her depressed housewife even one percent more likable.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Yura Borisov (“Anora”), Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”), Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”), Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”), Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”)
Will win: Culkin
Should win: Pearce
Snubbed: Mark Eydelshteyn, “Anora”
Culkin has won every precursor award, and seems poised to walk away with this one. The “Succession” alum is quite good, but he would probably be my third of fourth pick in this stacked category. Norton was my favorite part of “A Complete Unknown,” but I was blown away by Pearce in “The Brutalist,” playing one of the most horrifying villains in recent memory.
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“Anora” suffered from having too many Supporting Actor contenders, but the most underrated of the bunch is Eydelshteyn, playing a careless man-child who destroys everything he touches.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Monica Barbaro (“A Complete Unknown”), Ariana Grande (“Wicked”), Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”), Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”),
Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”)
Will win: Saldaña
Should win: Barbaro
Snubbed: Margaret Qualley, “The Substance”
If anyone manages to escape the vortex of controversy engulfing “Emilia Perez,” it will be Saldaña. Like Culkin, she’s won pretty much every precursor (SAG Awards, BAFTAs, Golden Globes) and is unquestionably the best part of my least favorite Best Picture nominee.
It would have been nice to see Qualley’s dead-eyed brilliance in “The Substance” get nominated alongside her better half Demi Moore.
Best Director
Nominees: Sean Baker (“Anora”), Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”), James Mangold (“A Complete Unknown”), Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Pérez”), Coralie Fargeat (“The Substance”)
Will win: Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Should win: Baker
Snubbed: RaMell Ross, “Nickel Boys”
It’s a two-horse race between Corbet and Baker, who rocketed up the betting markets after winning Best Director from the Directors Guild. Usually I’d follow the DGA’s lead with my pick, but the narrative of Corbet’s achievement in constructing “The Brutalist” on a $10 million budget is a strong one.
Watching “Nickel Boys” is like learning a new film language, and while it earned two nods (Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay), RaMell Ross’s film also deserved nominations for Editing, Cinematography, and Director at a minimum.
Full list of Oscars 2025 predictions
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “A Real Pain,” “September 5,” “The Substance”
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Will Win: “Anora”
Should Win: “Anora”
Successfully pulling off a film that is a romcom from the red light district, a slapstick comedy in stilettos, and a white-knuckle road movie that never leaves the confines of the Five Boroughs takes a great script.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez,” “Nickel Boys,” “Sing Sing”
Will Win: “Conclave”
Should Win: “Nickel Boys”
“Conclave” has been scooping this award up from other shows, and after near-misses higher up the slate, this could be the pope soap opera’s big win. Adapting Colson Whitehead’s “Nickel Boys” should have been a difficult task, but was handled in style by RaMell Ross and Josh Harris.
Best Animated Feature Film
Nominees: “Flow,” “Inside Out 2,” “Memoir of a Snail,” “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl,” “The Wild Robot”
Will win: “The Wild Robot”
Should win: “The Wild Robot”
You could make an argument for “Flow,” a wordless wonder also nominated in Best International Feature. But “The Wild Robot” tugs at the heartstrings and doesn’t let go.
Best International Feature Film
Nominees: “I’m Still Here” (Brazil), “The Girl with the Needle” (Denmark), “Emilia Pérez” (France), “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Germany), “Flow” (Latvia)
Will win: “Emilia Pérez”
Should win: I’m Still Here”
While it faces competition from fellow Best Picture nominee (and deserved winner) “I’m Still Here,” this should be a win for “Emilia Pérez,” which isn’t going to go home empty-handed with 13 nominations.
Best Documentary Feature Film
Nominees: “Black Box Diaries,” “No Other Land,” “Porcelain War,” “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat,” “Sugarcane”
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Will win: “Porcelain War”
Should win: “No Other Land”
Typically a tough category to predict, Documentary Feature is even harder this time around because “No Other Land,” a film about Palestinians trying to survive occupation and displacement, wasn’t picked up by a single U.S. distributor.
If enough voters attended private screenings, it could win. But “Porcelain War,” which won the DGA and a Grand Jury Prize at Sundance, is more likely.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”, “The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight”, “Like A Bird” from “Sing Sing”, “Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez”, “Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late”
Will win: “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
Should win: “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
“Emilia Pérez” is certainly a daring work of musical theater, which should push its nominee over the line. The only spoiler could be songwriter Diane Warren, who has been nominated 16 times without a win and is back once more with “The Journey.”
Best Original Score
Nominees: “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez,” “Wicked,” “The Wild Robot”
Will win: “The Brutalist”
Should win: “The Brutalist”
“The Brutalist” won the BAFTAs, which is the best piece of data we have for this category. This is where I’ll also make my final gripe about “Challengers”: My Spotify Wrapped was full of songs from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s propulsive score, which gave this erotic tennis drama its beating heart.
Best Cinematography
Nominees: “The Brutalist,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Emilia Pérez,” “Maria,” “Nosferatu”
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Will win: “The Brutalist”
Should win: “The Brutalist”
“The Brutalist” is a work of art, in large part thanks to Lol Crawley’s stunning visuals.
Best Film Editing
Nominees: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez,” “Wicked”
Will win: “Conclave”
Should win: “Anora”
“Conclave” should have this one wrapped up, but it’s fun to think about the possibility of Sean Baker — who wrote, directed, produced, and edited “Anora” — becoming the first person to win four Oscars in a single night.
Best Sound
Nominees: “A Complete Unknown,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Emilia Pérez,” “Wicked,” “The Wild Robot”
Will win: “Dune: Part Two”
Should win: “Dune: Part Two”
As I wrote in my review, Denis Villenuve’s sci-fi sequel is a technical marvel, with a sound mix that will rattle your teeth.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: “Alien: Romulus,” “Better Man,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes,” “Wicked”
Will win: “Dune: Part Two”
Should win: “Dune: Part Two”
See above.
Best Production Design
Nominees: “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Nosferatu,” “Wicked”
Will win: “Wicked”
Should win: “Dune: Part Two”
“Wicked” won both Production and Costume Design from the Critics Choice Awards and the BAFTAs, which is a good indication the magical musical will be the Academy’s choice as well.
Best Costume Design
Nominees: “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Gladiator II,” “Nosferatu,”
“Wicked”
Will win: “Wicked”
Should win: “Wicked”
Along with the aforementioned awards bodies, “Wicked” also won top honors from the Costume Designers Guild, so this seems like a near-lock.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: “A Different Man,” “Emilia Pérez,” “Nosferatu,” “The Substance,” “Wicked”
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Will win: “The Substance”
Should win: “The Substance”
If Coralie Fargeat’s body horror flick doesn’t win this category, it spells real danger for Demi Moore’s Best Actress chances later in the evening.
Best Live Action Short Film
Nominees: “A Lien,” “Anuja,” “I’m Not a Robot,” “The Last Ranger,” “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
Will win: “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
Full disclosure: I haven’t seen most of the shorts this year, and there is no Short Film Guild to help make my prediction. So I’m going with whoever FanDuel hired to set their Oscars betting odds, which currently list “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” as a slight favorite over the Mindy Kaling-produced “Anuja.”
Best Animated Short Film
Nominees: “Beautiful Men,” “In the Shadow of the Cypress,” “Magic Candies,” “Wander to Wonder,” “Yuck!”
Will win: “Wander to Wonder”
For the same reason noted above, I’m riding with Vegas, which likes “Wander to Wonder” at strong -175 odds.
Best Documentary Short Film
Nominees: “Death by Numbers,” “I Am Ready, Warden,” “Incident,” “Instruments of a Beating Heart,” “The Only Girl in the Orchestra”
Will win: “I Am Ready, Warden”
I usually catch these at the Coolidge, but it wasn’t in the cards this year. So once again, I’ll trust the Oscar experts over at DraftKings, who like “I Am Ready, Warden” (+110) over “The Only Girl in the Orchestra” (+270).
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