Rain, sleet and snow to drench Greater Boston during evening commute

Irena Tsvetkova, of Cambridge, trekked across the Massachusetts Avenue bridge during a particularly heavy squall on Tuesday, February 16, 2010. Dina Rudick/ GLOBE

A mixed bag of precipitation that could range from rain and sleet to snow will begin falling over the Greater Boston area on Tuesday afternoon and could impact the evening commute.

Starting late this afternoon and continuing through the evening, a warm front will bring rain to areas along the coast and south of Boston. However, just west and north of the city, the risk of enough cold air within several layers of the atmosphere means snow, sleet and freezing rain are all possible.

A mixed bag of weather is expected later Tuesday into early Wednesday.

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To complicate matters, a small new storm will form on this warm front and act like an anchor, slowing the advancing of the warm air. That could bring back the cold air, keeping a mixed bag of precipitation lasting longer.

Southern New England will be on the edge of the rain-snow line during Tuesday’s storm.

 

The temperature of the air from the ground up to where precipitation is falling becomes very critical when making a forecast within a warm front.

I would put this forecast on the lower end of the confidence scale. That means in those areas where I have forecast snow followed by ice, we could expect a couple more inches of snow if there’s more cold air. Or the icing could last several hours longer than forecast if there is more warm air above the ground.

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One thing I am positive about: This won’t turn into a big snowstorm. On Wednesday morning, the precipitation will continue mostly in the form of rain. Freezing rain isn’t likely to be a problem, although there could be some light glazing on the surface of the snow over northern Worcester County and Franklin County.

As the afternoon progresses, the storm will move out to sea, though skies will remain cloudy.  The rest of the week looks storm-free with temperatures above average.

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