First widespread snow of the season likely for Monday morning commute
While not a big storm by any measure, the first snow that actually sticks is coming for many of us.
There’s a weak weather system headed for southern New England Monday morning, and it’s likely going to bring some snow to much of the area, including Boston.
Snow will break out across western New England after midnight Monday.
I think most areas, with the exception of Cape Cod, the islands, and parts of the south coast, will see snow. In other words, you’ll experience that white stuff falling from the clouds.
When will the snow fall?
The timing of this event looks to be during and just after the morning commute. Roughly 4 a.m to 2 p.m. is when the snow will fall over the region, but it will start later further east, and end earlier west. After this period, temperatures will warm enough to change the snow to light rain before it ends.
The loop below shows the snow (blue) arriving Monday and leaving later in the day. Green areas are rain.
https://giphy.com/gifs/26tklw0Qm4yOspxWU
As far as accumulations, I am expecting a coating to an inch or two of snow. Some spots in the higher terrain could receive just over 2 inches if everything worked out just right and there was a heavier burst for an hour.
Will the snow stick and how much?
Temperatures are going to fall quickly Sunday night with clear skies. As an aside, be sure to check out Venus and the Moon in the southwestern sky again.
With temperatures below freezing and roads also become colder, the snow will stick. Of course treated roads won’t be an issue, but untreated surfaces could be slick for a few hours Monday.
Snowfall during Monday morning will amount to up to 2 inches in some places.
What could change?
Since this is light event, there isn’t much wiggle room for changes. On the upper end of the scale the 2-inch line could make it closer to Route 128, but likely not Boston or south, or, alternatively, the just-seeing-a-few-flakes-to-a-coating line could be further north that I have indicated if more rain mixes in.
When is our next system?
There’s another system possible with some light precipitation in the middle of the week. I do see much colder air arriving next weekend. As I mentioned several weeks ago, this December is going to be much colder and likely snowier than last year.
I will be updating the forecast here and on Twitter, @growingwisdom.
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