Does the current drought mean we won’t see much snow this winter?
In a word, no. Here's the reason.
The drought across much of our area continues and has even become more pronounced in the past week. The lack of precipitation extends all the way back to the winter of 2014-2015, when so much snow fell.
Many areas in the northeast are still in a significant drought
This lack of precipitation begs the question: Will the upcoming winter bring less than average snowfall?
Before I give you my thoughts, let’s define the difference between precipitation and snow. Of course, snow is actually a form of precipitation, as are sleet, freezing rain, drizzle, and hail. However, when meteorologists and climatologists talk about a year with precipitation above or below average, they are speaking about the melted form of all types of precipitation, added up.
In most of southern New England, we receive between 40 and 45 inches of precipitation a year. This includes melted forms of frozen precipitation and rainfall.
Now, the big question: Could a drought pattern still produce normal or even above normal amounts of snow? The answer is mostly yes, and here’s why:
We only need to look at average precipitation for December through March. During these four months, about 14.5 inches of precipitation (rain and melted snow) falls. During a typical winter, snowfall ranges from 20 inches to more than 100 inches across much of New England.
Approximate average snowfall in southern New England.
Let’s assume we only saw half the normal amount of precipitation this winter. (That would be horrible for the drought, by the way.) That would be the equivalent of just over seven inches of water (14.5 divided by two). Often, one inch of melted precipitation equals 10 inches of snow. So if all of that precipitation fell as snow, it could lead to 70 inches of snow, or more than average for much of the area. Of course, not all of it really would be in the form of snow, but even half would get us close to average, which is around 40 inches in Boston.
The point here is, even in a drought pattern, if the storms come at the right time—when cold air is present—we can still pile up significant snow. This doesn’t mean we will. It only means that just because we’ve been in a drought doesn’t mean we won’t be shoveling this winter.
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