Cold rain and even some wet snow in the forecast for Thursday
It's a reminder: Winter is coming.
It seems like the cold weather has really set in a bit early this fall. While I don’t see any deep cold yet, this isn’t going to be like last year when winter arrived late and, when it did, it was brief. Without an El Nino in place like in 2015, you can likely expect a much more typical transition into winter.
Keeping this in mind, there is the chance some of you will see your first snowflakes of the season tomorrow on the front end of a fast-moving rainstorm.
Let me be clear: Thursday’s event won’t be a snowstorm. However, it will be the type of situation where enough cold air will be around the region as the storm begins to allow the precipitation to briefly start as snow.
The location with the biggest chance of getting snow is west of Route 128 and even west of Route 495. Areas that are higher in elevation, such as the hills of northern Worcester and Franklin Counties, tend to see snow in these situations.
The map below shows the expected line of rain around 11 a.m. on Thursday. Notice that the rain will be just on the edge of Boston. This means a dry morning commute, but the evening one will be wet.
Rain and snow will fall later Thursday morning across parts of New York and western New England.
The blue area over New York is snow. This is showing up in the higher elevations, and I suspect the same thing will occur in southern New England.
It’s very early to be getting snow at the coast, and I have zero concern about this somehow turning into a surprise snow event. There simply isn’t enough cold air around, and a wind off the water will bring mild ocean air well inland. This will prevent any snow from falling, even if it started as snow at cloud level.
Mild air off the ocean will prevent most areas from seeing any snow.
The rain may become heavy for a time on Thursday night or early Friday, but it does appear that it will end on Friday morning and leave us with mostly cloudy skies for the rest of the day.
Rain will be over by mid to late morning on Friday.
A quick peak at the weekend shows that a weaker weather system could bring a shower on Saturday or Sunday afternoon, but generally we are looking at a dry weekend with a blend of clouds and sunshine. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s.
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