Thunderstorms and showers possible through the evening, but severe weather doesn’t appear to be widespread
A pair of frontal systems could bring active weather to areas of southern New England.
Humidity levels are increasing this afternoon and evening and setting the stage for possible showers and thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center has put New England under a slight risk of severe weather. This means some storms could reach severe levels if they occur, but it’s still not certain that storms will even form in the first place.
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible, but not likely today.
The lack of sunshine will inhibit temperatures from increasing dramatically before any thunderstorms. One of the key ingredients for seeing strong storms is an atmosphere heated to a level to produce big cumulonimbus clouds. We aren’t seeing the sun to fuel the storms, but this could change before sunset.
There is a warm front to our south that is trying to progress northward. This system is creating a few rain showers. If severe weather is going to occur, it would likely do so ahead of the cold front and behind the warm front in the area of warm and humid air.
A warm and a cold front (red and blue) will pass through southern New England by Wednesday morning.
There are already storms developing back through New York and points south. Some of these storms are showing signs of rotation and could bring a small tornado to those areas. The fact that the atmosphere is primed for that type of activity and it is moving east is why you are hearing forecasters mention severe weather.
The models, which don’t always handle short-term severe weather well, appear to keep southern New England from getting much in the way of activity from this entire system. The loop below shows how most of the activity (greens, yellows, and reds) looks like it will remain west and north of southern New England and, when it does finally move through, weaken dramatically.
http://giphy.com/gifs/l2SpRqIDwZMGHvNu0
Since the entire summer has seen system after system fall apart upon moving to the coastline, I don’t see any strong indication that the same thing isn’t going to occur again.
The bottom line is: There is a risk of storms through about 2 a.m.
Most of you won’t see anything, but a few towns may be hit by an isolated storm that could reach strong to severe levels. I will update the forecast here and on my Twitter account, @growingwisdom, throughout the evening.
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