What kind of weather is in store for New England this January? Here’s what the models say.
With January 2026 upon us, and the first month of meteorological winter behind us, you might be wondering: What does the second month of winter look like?
Long-range forecasts are often highly variable, but when it comes to whether we’re going to be warmer or colder than average or wetter or drier, these forecasts have gotten quite a bit better.
It’s impossible to predict whether or not we’re going to get a snowstorm on a certain day during the first month of the year, but patterns tend to establish themselves during the winter, though they can be tough to unlock.
December brought us a cold and dry month with about half the normal amount of precipitation. Temperatures were just over 4 degrees below average with eight days of above-average temperatures and the rest colder than average. This pattern is likely to continue at least to start the month of January.
Most of the models agree that January itself will average colder. Looking at the American and European models, both keep some of the coldest air compared to average in the northeast corner of the country. This follows what December looked like, with our region experiencing some of the colder temperatures when compared to what you would typically expect.
Precipitation is also forecast to be near or below average in January. Remember much of the Northeast is still in a drought, even though it is no longer growing season. Now, we could have a snowy January and still have less-than-average precipitation. This is because 10 inches of snowfall typically could yield 1 inch of melted precipitation. If we had 2 inches of melted precipitation in January and all of it fell as snow, we’d end up with 20 inches, which would be significantly above average in an overall dry month. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but there is a path to a dry, cold, and snowy month. The past three Januarys have all seen around 8 or 9 inches of snow. You have to go back to 2022, when Boston received a whopping 3 feet of the white stuff, to find an above-average snowy January.
January can also bring something called the January thaw. This is not a statistically reliable occurrence, but because there are years where the temperature does go quite a bit above average and we can lose snow cover if we have it, many people think that it does occur yearly.
I do think it’s more likely than not that after our cold December and a cold start to the month there are probably at least a few days where temperatures do go above average, perhaps late in the first or into the second week of the month. Sometimes when you oscillate between those cold weeks into a break in the cold, a snow event often occurs. Keep an eye on the end of the first week and the start of the second for this possibility.
The bottom line is that statistically January is our coldest month of the year and statistically average temperatures are at their lowest right around the beginning of the fourth week before moderating.
One thing I can guarantee is that the gap between sunrise and sunset, which is at about 9 hours and 9 minutes as we start the month, will grow to just about 10 hours by month’s end. This added daylight for many is a sign of our next season.
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