Winter Watch
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A big holiday weekend is coming up, marking the halfway point of the final month of meteorological winter and when a lot of folks end up traveling out of town. Friday is a busy travel day with school vacation next week and President’s Day beginning on Monday.
You’ve likely heard there’s another storm system impacting us to start the weekend. The good news is that Friday and nearly all of Saturday remain precipitation free. This will allow flights to get in and out of Logan Airport without any weather issues and roads will be dry throughout New England.
The upcoming storm on Saturday, like many of its predecessors, is going to be a messy one. But one of the differences will be its duration: This is a storm that’s going to last longer. Things have been moving very quickly this winter, but the weekend storm will give us nearly double the amount of precipitating hours than we have typically seen.
The storm system will move up through New York State, bringing a warm front through Southern New England. Since it’s only Wednesday, the exact timing of all of this is definitely going to change as will the forecast accumulation ahead of any changeover.
As I see it now, we’re likely to get a thump of snow Saturday evening changing over to mixed precipitation or even straight rain Sunday morning. Obviously, the length of time before the changeover is going to determine how much snow ends up on the ground. Right now, I’d say most of us are going to end up with less than 4 inches before any changeover, and more as you get closer to the New Hampshire and Vermont border. That number could go higher if it looks like the cold air is going to hang on a little longer. More on that before the storm.
In other words, this isn’t another big snowstorm.
One of the issues with the storm systems here in Southern New England this winter has been the milder air intruding during the storm despite the fact it’s been cold before and after.
You should plan on a wet day on Sunday. It’s likely to be a mixed bag for ski country with snow, sleet and perhaps some freezing rain, but in the Boston area it’s going to be all rain all day before tapering off in the afternoon or evening.
This is a wet weather system and many of us could see over an inch of precipitation. Temperatures will be interesting to watch on Sunday. There’s likely going to be a sharp divide between air that’s in the 40s to near 50 and temperatures that stay in the 30s. It’s not out of the question that folks south of the Mass Pike actually reach the 50-degree mark for a few hours if the warmer air is able to move north.
On Monday, President’s Day, the storm sweeps away and leaves us with sunshine and progressively colder air. Temperatures are going to be several degrees below average. Typical high temperatures this time of the year are well into the 30s to near 40 but we’re going to be in the 20s for Monday and maybe staying in the teens to near 20 on Tuesday as the core of the cold air moves in much of next week. After Tuesday, it’s looking dry with a bit of a break in the active weather pattern.
Southern New England: Look for dry weather with temperatures near 30 on Friday. Clouds increase on Saturday with snow arriving by dark. Precipitation changes to rain by Sunday morning. Monday is cold.
Western Mass.: Look for sunshine with temperatures in the 20s for Friday. Snow arrives Saturday night and likely changes to rain before ending Sunday afternoon. Monday is cold and blustery.
Cape and Islands: Look for cold and dry weather on Friday with temperatures just above freezing. Clouds increase on Saturday. A brief period of snow before a change to rain is likely Saturday night. Rain comes to an end Sunday.
Northern New England: Windy conditions on Friday with temperatures in the teens and 20s. Snow arrives Saturday night and mixes with sleet and freezing rain on Sunday. It’s cold on Monday.
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