Here’s how Hurricane Dorian could impact New England later this week
“The magnitude of wind and rain impacts will be highly dependent on Dorian’s exact track as it approaches the New England region."
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Hurricane Dorian should make its way up to New England at the end of the week, according to local forecasters.
But it’s still too early to tell just how much it will affect the region, the National Weather Service said Tuesday.
The storm, which has been deadly in the Bahamas, is expected to pass by southern New England Friday night, according to the service. It could bring up to 4 inches of rain in 12 hours, plus wind gusts up to 55 mph, particularly for Nantucket.
Key messages for S New England … #Dorian sweeps by @ Friday night
– Dangerous surf & a high risk of rip currents developing thru the weekEspecially for SE New England
– Rainfall amounts upwards of 4″ in 12 hrs
– NE wind gusts as high as 55 mph, especially #Nantucket pic.twitter.com/DCb0uLs7mE— NWS Boston (@NWSBoston) September 3, 2019
“It’s still rather early to be getting too specific,” William Babcock, a meteorologist with the service, said. “There is still a lot of time, and it is going to be shifting its track back and forth within that time.”
Winds along southern New England waters should become stronger Thursday night and reach Cape Cod and the Islands Friday morning, according to Babcock. While Nantucket is projected to see the strongest winds, the Cape and Islands could see “some decent gusts.” The South Shore, referring to the coast of Plymouth County, could see gusts between 30 and 35 mph. Boston is outside of that range; winds could reach 25 mph.
“The strongest winds look to be Friday night as Dorian is passing off shore,” Babcock said. “The winds should be diminishing on Saturday.”
As for rain, Boston could receive about a half inch as showers move in Friday into Friday night, Babcock said.
“Boston is really out on the edge as far as getting any showers,” he said, noting that the Cape and Islands could receive between 1 and 3 inches.
The forecast is subject to change, according to Babcock, since Dorian could shift a few miles out to sea, or a few miles closer to land.
“At this stage, we need to be looking more at the trends than the exact numbers,” he said.
Babcock stressed that New Englanders should continue monitoring local weather reports.
“This is a potentially dangerous storm, so everyone should keep an eye out on the latest forecast,” he said. “Just stay alert to the latest weather forecast, and, if we’re lucky, it will stay out to sea.”
The Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency said in a news release, as of noon on Tuesday, that there’s still “a great deal of uncertainty” with the storm’s path as it moves toward New England. The current track has the storm passing around 160 miles southeast of Nantucket early Saturday with sustained winds of 85 mph as a category 1 hurricane.
“A great deal of uncertainty remains regarding Dorian’s track as it approaches the New England region, and the forecast may change significantly between now and this weekend,” the release said. “While an offshore track for Dorian is most likely, it should be noted that the average error over the past 5 years for forecasts at this time range is 140 miles.”
The current storm path could mean rough surf and rip currents for beaches exposed to the ocean and facing south from Wednesday through Saturday, according to MEMA. There could also be storm surge, along with the expected winds and rain. The Cape and Islands could see “some flooding” Friday into Friday night, plus there’s a “minimal risk” of a tornado there during the same timeframe.
“The magnitude of wind and rain impacts will be highly dependent on Dorian’s exact track as it approaches the New England region,” the release said. “If it tracks further to the south and east than forecast, impacts will be reduced.”
Terry Eliasen, a meteorologist with WBZ, said “most concerns are for coastal waters.”
Potenital impacts for southern New England…most concerns are for coastal waters pic.twitter.com/H24RfcZiYJ
— Terry Eliasen (@TerryWBZ) September 3, 2019
He noted that models have “the center of Dorian [passing] well to our southeast (more than 100 miles).”
Models all in good agreement that the center of Dorian passes well to our southeast (more than 100 miles)…only fringe concerns here pic.twitter.com/OgCodiEbxB
— Terry Eliasen (@TerryWBZ) September 3, 2019
Michael Page, a meteorologist with NECN, said there could be gusts between 40 and 60 mph from Friday night into Saturday for the southeastern part of the state, as well as the Cape and Islands.
https://twitter.com/MichaelPageWx/status/1168883015675723777
