It’s mild out now, but there still could be snow in our future
It’s clear that a major storm is going to occur off the coast late this week and early into the weekend, but it’s unclear what the impact of the storm will be.
Sure, this winter hasn’t been a particularly snowy one, but that doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods quite yet.
Although there are only a couple of days left in February, no matter what happens, this is going to be one of the top three warmest Februarys since record-keeping started in 1872. Thursday marks the end of meteorological winter, and, generally, it hasn’t been too difficult, with only one really major snowstorm at the beginning of January.
Cold and snow can certainly occur in April and even May. But if we’re going to see a major snowstorm before winter comes to a close, the next three weeks will bring the greatest opportunity.
The upper-level pattern is undergoing a major shift over the next few days and the jet stream will become more active. It’s clear that a major storm is going to occur off the coast late this week and early into the weekend, but it’s unclear what the impact of the storm will be.
https://giphy.com/gifs/1kjFwzOxO7UuMArfDw
If you take a look at the map below, you see all sorts of little “L’’ letters. Each of these represents a potential position of the upcoming storm or low-pressure system, as based on the European model. Notice how many different positions there are — each of these would bring a different type of weather to New England.
One thing that is quite sure: There will be a strong easterly fetch, and, with astronomically high tides occurring early in March, there is potential for coastal flooding and beach erosion — even if the storm isn’t a direct hit. The highest tide of the month occurs Saturday at around noon. The storm may be over by then, but it will be in close proximity. For me, the threat of coastal flooding is the biggest concern with this storm potential.
The timing brings the storm into the region later Thursday, and has it clearing away Saturday. Temperatures are going to be marginal for any frozen precipitation, but, depending on exactly how this unfolds, there could be some snow, especially over inland areas. That said, I’m leaning toward a primarily rain event. Friday looks wet right now, but here again a shift in track can change this. Stay informed to the latest forecasts this week and for any changes to my thinking.
Next week, the pattern stays relatively seasonal but unsettled, with additional chances of storminess — some of which could bring snow. The way to think about the next couple of weeks is that there isn’t a lot of very mild weather in sight, and I don’t expect us to beat the 70-degree weather of February any time soon.
