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Hurricane Lee: What conditions New England can expect as Category 3 storm tracks north
There is still a lot of uncertainty when it comes to Hurricane Lee, but meteorologists say New England will see impacts.
Hurricane Lee, currently a Category 3 storm, still has a lot of forecasters guessing where it might make landfall, if at all.
And though it seems that New England will miss a direct hit, the strong storm could still produce nasty weather conditions in the region.
“For New England, we do expect impacts,” said John Cangialosi, senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center.
Here’s what to expect and keep an eye on as Lee begins to move north.
Hurricane Lee’s current track
NHC’s most recent update on Lee at 11 p.m. Tuesday showed that the hurricane was 495 miles south of Bermuda. It had sustained winds of 115 mph, making Lee a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
In the NHC forecast, meteorologists said Lee will slowly weaken over the next two days as it heads north to cooler waters.
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Cangialosi noted that even though this storm will weaken — possibly to a Category 1 — by the time it nears New England’s coastline, the actual size of this system is expected to grow.
That means a larger wind field, which is when strong winds extend hundreds of miles from the actual storm, and that could be a problem for New England the farther west the storm tracks. Tropical storm winds currently extend as far out as 240 miles, and the reach continues to move farther out with each NHC update.
As of NHC’s 5 p.m. update, most of Maine was in the cone of uncertainty. Massachusetts’ Cape Cod was just outside of the cone’s area. The cone of uncertainty does not reflect a current or certain track, but rather a probable track that becomes less certain the further out the hurricane is from the area.
Impacts to New England
Meteorologists on Monday stressed that nothing is too certain this far out except for one condition: marine hazards.
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“We don’t need Hurricane Lee to be on top of us to produce those waves and rip currents,” said Torry Dooley, a local NWS meteorologist. “Folks that are heading to the beach and getting some last summer days in, they want to keep those conditions in mind.”
Lee is forecast to be east of Massachusetts late Friday to Saturday, but hazardous marine conditions will get here even earlier by Thursday or early Friday, Dooley said.
That’s something not just beachgoers should keep in mind, but mariners who will likely see high waves around this time.
What meteorologists are still less certain about are the impact levels of conditions like rain, flooding, and wind. Cangialosi said residents in Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Cape Cod should pay closer attention to the threat level of these conditions as Lee gets closer.
Dooley said they should have a better idea by Wednesday, when Lee is three days out and is expected to turn north.
“If Lee were to take the more western track, we could see heavy rain and strong gusty winds,” Dooley said. “If Lee were to stay on eastern side of the cone, we might not get rain, maybe breezy winds — a nothing or all-in kind of thing.”
How to prepare
Cangialosi said those on the coast of New England, and especially those who may be going out to sea, need to take caution sooner rather than later.
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“If you’re going to go offshore, you need to be careful,” Cangialosi said. “You need to go now or wait for this to go by.”
Dooley recommended that residents who live close to water review their safety action plans now, in the extreme case that they would need to evacuate. It’s also a good idea, he said, to get small safety items now, like a case of water or batteries. NHC releases updated advisories at least every six hours, which is the best place to look for the latest track information on Hurricane Lee.
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