Don’t expect a white Christmas in Boston this year
The weather will be an unpredictable mix in the days ahead.
It’s beginning to look like we’ll be having another snowless, brown Christmas across the area this year, in the middle of a very active pattern with a lot of rapid changes. There will be days ahead that are in the 50s to near 60, and others that stay below freezing. This rollercoaster ride will make it seem like Mother Nature just can’t decide if she wants to bring on winter or not.
Most of the area received half a foot of snow just under two weeks ago. We’ve already lost much of that snow cover, and it will continue to vanish from now through Christmas.
On Tuesday, temperatures will reach well into the 40s ahead of colder air to the west. If the sun stays out long enough, some areas will reach 50 degrees, certainly mild enough for plenty of melting.
The atmosphere will turn colder on Wednesday and Thursday, with highs on Wednesday only nearing 40 and staying under freezing the following day. As we reach the weekend, more changes are ahead. A cold front will be slicing through the center of the country later this week. Ahead of this front, unseasonable mild air will be thrust northward along the eastern seaboard.
While it’s difficult to erode cold air in December, it can be done with enough of a southerly flow. And the warm air will be accompanied by rain.
It will cloud up on Friday, which will be raw and damp and with rain beginning sometime late in the day or night. Saturday will be wet, but mild with mild temperatures reaching well into the 50s; there’s a chance some areas will reach 60 degrees. Two years ago it was nearly 70 degrees on Christmas Eve.
Rain will cross the area Friday night and Saturday, along with spring-like temperatures.
It’s been a while since we had a white Christmas in Boston. You have to go back to 2009 to find widespread snow across the region, when everywhere from New York City to Caribou, Maine, had snow on the ground.
The next year also had reasonable snow cover, but it was very sparse by the time you got to the Boston area.
The powerful El Nino two years ago contributed those 70-degree readings just before Christmas, and there was virtually no snow cover in all of New England. That was of course an exceptional year, and when we have strong El Ninos, temperatures tend to be incredibly mild, especially in December.
While I am confident there won’t be snow prior to Christmas, it’s also looking more like the days after the holiday will turn quite cold. The long-range forecast has much of the country, including New England, quite cold heading into 2018.
Will there be snow to start the year? Stay tuned.
