New Iowa totals don’t change Mitt Romney’s original campaign calculus
New precinct totals showing Rick Santorum beat Mitt Romney by 34 votes in Iowa instead of losing by eight aren’t just more than four times as bad as the original results for the GOP frontrunner.
It’s the latest tarnish on the aura of inevitability that Romney has been trying to buff throughout the campaign for the Republican presidential nomination.
In their own last-gasp bids to save their campaigns, Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Perry have been challenging Romney’s conservative credentials and trashing his leadership of Bain Capital LLC.
Perry, who was running fifth in South Carolina behind the others and Ron Paul before announcing today he was quitting the race and endorsing Gingrich, even branded Romney’s venture capital and private equity work as “vulture capitalism.’’
Gingrich, meanwhile, surging into second and now threatening to win Saturday’s South Carolina primary, has delighted in labeling Romney a “Massachusetts moderate.’’
Santorum has done much the same in South Carolina mailers, even as he has criticized Romney for refusing to rein in a third-party group that has been attacking the former Pennsylvania senator on his behalf.
The attacks by the Restore our Future super PAC have helped drop Santorum to fourth place in the latest South Carolina polls – far behind what now is being reported as a win in the Iowa caucuses.
And therein lies the challenge for the remaining field and the continued opportunity for Romney.
Accepting Santorum won Iowa and Romney followed up with an unchallenged first-place finish in the New Hampshire primary (where Santorum faded to fifth, behind Romney, Paul, Jon Huntsman, and Gingrich), the likelihood is of a second Romney win on Saturday in South Carolina or a first Gingrich victory in the Palmetto State.
Santorum’s precipitous decline since Iowa could bolster one of Gingrich’s key campaign lines, that conservatives should unite behind him because the former House speaker is the only candidate with the prominence, experience, and eloquence to not only beat Romney for the nomination but also Democrat Barack Obama for the presidency.
Perry’s decision to quit the race even before the voting, and unite with Gingrich, show he accepts that logic.
A Gingrich win on Saturday would only increase pressure on Santorum to follow Perry’s example by getting out of the race.
Paul now appears to have finished third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire, but the Texas congressman seems unable to exceed about more than 20 percent in any caucus or primary. The most recent South Carolina polls show him even lower, in third place with about 15 percent of the vote.
Paul is unlikely to drop out any time soon, but he also appears unlikely to win enough delegates in the remaining contests to challenge for the nomination.
The nomination campaign next moves to Florida, where Romney is strongly positioned for the Jan. 31 state primary. He not only has an extensive organization and a well-financed super PAC airing ads in the state, but he also has widespread establishment support and is reportedly going to receive the endorsement of popular former Governor Jeb Bush.
Romney then is then similarly positioned for a strong showing in the Feb. 4 caucuses in Nevada, a state where he has campaigned steadily, won in 2008, and has benefitted from an active organization of fellow Mormons.
Caucus voting also starts that day in Maine, another New England state where Romney is well known from his time as Massachusetts governor, and where he could post another win.
And that has been Romney’s strategy from the outset: be prepared for the longhaul even as you try to project an aura of inevitability to your opponents.
Initial results showing an eight-vote win in Iowa, followed by a nearly 2-to-1 victor over his closest competitor in New Hampshire, allowed Romney to embrace the idea that he had made history as the first non-incumbent Republican presidential candidate to win both initial contests.
(Aside: In Iowa, Romney delivered a speech accepting a virtual three-way tie with Santorum and Paul before his eight-vote win was announced at 2:30 a.m.)
A win in South Carolina on Saturday would have effectively clinched the nomination for Romney even before the campaign reached Florida.
But now an Iowa loss, followed by a victory in New Hampshire that critics correctly note was Romney’s own backyard, and an uncertain finish in South Carolina this weekend, show a campaign that will surely be contested through Florida.
What it does not change is that Romney has readied for not the coronation he might have lucked into but the long fight in which he is now engaged.
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com