Online Poll: Elizabeth Warren-Scott Brown Senate matchup in dead heat
A new online poll shows Democrat Elizabeth Warren in a dead heat with Republican Scott Brown in a hypothetical US Senate general election matchup next year, with Warren’s 43-39 percent result within the survey’s 4.4 percentage point margin of error.
The University of Massachusetts Amherst poll of 500 adults, conducted Nov. 9 through Nov. 22 by YouGov America, shows similar results to other recent polls. Nationally, many handicappers call the race a toss-up.
Democrats see the election as one of the few opportunities to take a seat from Republicans in a national climate that is otherwise expected to produce GOP gains.
Warren must still win a Democratic primary against four rivals to face Brown in next year’s general election, but the poll shows her comfortably ahead of her lesser-known opponents, with 73 percent of Democrats polled supporting her in the primary.
“These numbers could mean trouble for Scott Brown,’’ UMass political scientist Brian Schaffner said in a press release. “The race is a dead heat, and his support is well under 50 percent, which usually means difficulty for an incumbent, especially this far out from Election Day.’’
The poll shows Brown with an 18-point lead among independents, the group he needs most to win with large margins if he is to retain his seat.
UMass pollsters say that margin is similar to Republican Charles D. Baker’s lead among independents in last year’s gubernatorial election, which he lost to Governor Deval Patrick, a Democrat, albeit in a three-way race involving independent candidate Timothy Cahill.
The poll also asked respondents for a one-word description of the candidates.
Among 296 people who described Warren, the top four responses were liberal (36 people, 12 percent), intelligent (23 people, 8 percent), socialist (18 people, 6 percent), and smart (17 people, 6 percent.)
For Brown, 374 people offered a one-word description. His top four: moderate (20 people, 5 percent), honest (16 people, 4 percent), conservative (12 people, 3 percent), and Republican (8 people, 2 percent).
The poll also suggests Brown is doing better among residents making more than $100,000 a year, while Warren is favored by lower-earning groups.
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