Mitt Romney maintains N.H. lead in new poll
WASHINGTON – Mitt Romney, coming off four days of campaigning and two major endorsements in New Hampshire, remains the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican presidential primary in the Granite State, according to a new poll.
Romney would get 41 percent of the vote if it were held today, according to a poll of likely GOP primary voters conducted by Suffolk University and WHDH-TV.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Representative Ron Paul would come in a tie for second, with each of them at 14 percent.
All other candidates were in single digits, including Jon Huntsman (9 percent), Herman Cain (8 percent), Rick Santorum (3 percent), Rick Perry (2 percent), and Michele Bachmann (1 percent).
With just seven weeks before voters head to the polls, Gingrich appears to have momentum – going from 4 percent in a similar poll two months ago, to 14 percent now – but is still far behind Romney.
It contradicts another poll — released last week and conducted by New Hampshire Journal/Magellan Strategies — that showed Gingrich and Romney in a dead heat in New Hampshire.
Suffolk’s statewide survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters was conducted Nov. 16-20 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
The race still remains volatile.
Nine percent of voters surveyed said they were undecided, and more than half said they were either somewhat or very likely to change their minds before the Jan. 10 primary.
“Every Republican candidate that surges in the national polls hits a firewall in New Hampshire,’’ David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University’s Political Research Center, said in a statement. “We’ve seen this with surges from Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and now Gingrich. A Romney loss here is highly improbable.’’
Romney fared best among respondents ages 55 and older, among those who were unlikely to change their mind.
Further helping Romney, he and Gingrich are virtually tied among “second choice’’ votes, meaning that if other candidates falter both Romney and Gingrich are likely to benefit equally.
The survey was also mostly completed before Romney received one of the state’s biggest endorsements, from US Senator Kelly Ayotte, and was done before he was endorsed today by US Representative Charlie Bass.
In an open-ended question, 16 percent of respondents said that Romney’s Mormon faith was the top reason that Romney wasn’t further ahead among national Republicans. Ten percent said his changing views on the issues; 10 percent said his health care plan in Massachusetts; and 10 percent said there were too many other candidates in the field.
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