Florida threatens early GOP primary as N.H. vows to remain first in nation
WASHINGTON – The Republican primary calendar is starting to come into sharper focus, with Florida officials now indicating that they will likely hold their election Jan. 31 in a scenario that will push early primary states to shift their election dates.
The likely result? Once again, candidates spending Christmas in Concord, N.H.
States are required to submit their primary and caucus dates to the Republican National Committee by Saturday, and most eyes have been on Florida.
Florida House Speaker Dean Cannon told CNN that a bipartisan state commission on Friday was likely to choose Jan. 31 as its nominating date, putting the state in violation of Republican National Committee rules and risking half of the state’s delegates.
“We are expecting to meet on Friday from 11 to 12, and I expect that they will pick January 31 as Florida’s primary date,’’ Cannon, a Republican who helped select members of the nine-member commission, told CNN.
Early states like Iowa and New Hampshire have been expected to hold their contests in early February, but would move their elections to January if that’s what is needed to jump in front of Florida and maintain their prized first-in-the-nation voting status.
The leap-frogging is all part of what has become a quadrennial rite, with states jockeying to gain importance by trying to hold an influential early primary. In 2008, in what both parties said was a process that got out of control, the nominating contests began just after New Year’s, with many candidates spending their holidays trying to campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire.
To prevent that from happening again, Democratic and Republican national party officials agreed that only four states should be allowed to hold elections in February – New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina, and Nevada. All other states would have to wait until at least March to hold their elections or risk losing half of their delegates.
But Florida, as well as a handful of other states, has disregarded that rule. Arizona and Michigan each decided earlier this month to hold its primary on Feb. 28. Colorado Republicans have scheduled their caucuses for Feb. 7. Georgia and Missouri also may hold early primaries.
New Hampshire Republicans did not react kindly this morning to the news that Florida is intending to stick by its Jan. 31 date.
“Florida’s effort to move into the early primary period not only hurts the process, by cutting into the type of vetting that we do so well here in New Hampshire, but it also hurts Florida, by costing them delegates and watering down that state’s impact,’’ House Speaker William O’Brien said in a statement. “Florida may dilute the value of their primary, but we certainly won’t allow their actions to minimize the New Hampshire Primary.’’
Which states hold their primaries and when could play a major role in the strategies of each of the candidates. Decisions made now could also determine the eventual nominee, particularly if the nominating contest becomes a protracted battle where delegate counts matter.
But the aim of the party in extending the nominating contest deep into the year may not ultimately work.
“Why do we want to prolong this when the [Democratic] side’s got no contest?’’ said Ron Kaufman, a Republican National Committee member from Massachusetts and an adviser to Mitt Romney. “The sooner the better. Honestly, regardless of who the nominee is.’’
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