The group stage won’t be kind to some nations, and other observations on the World Cup draw
Following the World Cup draw on Dec. 5, here's a breakdown of each group for this summer.
FIFA tries its best to make first-round World Cup life easy for certain teams, starting with the hosts. Consider that goal accomplished with Mexico and the United States. Not so for Canada. Or France and Germany, for that matter.
The best-case scenario for the North Americans in next year’s tournament was to be grouped with one European foe, and that is what happened with Mexico and the US. The Maple Leafs, though, will be contending with Switzerland and a playoff team from a group that includes four-time champion Italy. Small consolation that the fourth team in the group is Qatar.
Then there are Les Bleus, who open with Senegal, which defeated them, 1-0, when they were reigning champions in 2002. Following a breather with a yet-to-be-determined qualifier, France goes against Norway in Foxborough on June 26. If you believe the 29th-ranked Norwegians have been underrated by FIFA, you’ll find agreement with oddsmakers, who list them ninth favorites to win the tournament.
Die Mannschaft will be challenged by two of the better defensive teams, reigning African champion Cote d’Ivoire (8-0-2, 25-0 goal differential in qualifying) and Ecuador (8-2-8, 14-5).
A fuller look at the 12 quartets:
Group A
Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Czechia/Denmark/Ireland/North Macedonia
Mexico plays the opening game against South Africa, a rematch of the 1-1 result in the 2010 tournament opener. The match should be a good advertisement, both teams relying on creativity and technique — but, this time, Mexico will have home-field advantage. After that, it could become more difficult. If El Tri can equal their 2-2 tie (late Santi Gimenez equalizer) with South Korea on Sept. 9 in Nashville, that could be enough, no matter their result against a Euro qualifier.
Group B
Canada, Qatar, Switzerland, Bosnia & Herzegovina/Italy/Northern Ireland/Wales
The Canadians might want to question the rankings, as they find themselves No. 27, 13 places behind the Americans — who they are 3-1-2 against since 2021. No. 17 Switzerland is three places behind the US, despite a 4-0 victory last summer. Italy is ranked 12th.
Group C
Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland
Five-time champion Brazil is, as usual, heavily favored. But Morocco, which became Africa’s first semifinalist in 2022, should provide a difficult test on June 13. The Scots displayed resilience with two stoppage-time goals in a 4-2 win over Denmark in the qualifying finale. Scotland has not competed in the World Cup since 1998, when it disrupted the Brazilians despite falling, 2-1. Haiti, with the country’s two all-time leading scorers Duckens Nazon (43 goals) and former Melrose High forward Frantzdy Pierrot (33), should be buoyed by strong support.
Group D
United States, Paraguay, Australia, Kosovo/Romania/Slovakia/Turkey
The Americans have not lost to Australia since 1992 (2-0-1) or Paraguay since 2011 (3-0-0), but both present a physical presence that could take a toll, no matter the result. The US edged Australia, 2-1, on a cool October night in Colorado, but lost Christian Pulisic (hamstring) in the first half. Coach Mauricio Pochettino noted the risk presented by extreme climates, but that should not be a factor when the teams meet in Seattle on June 19. First place in the group means encountering a third-place team in the elimination round and, possibly, Belgium in the Round of 16.
Group E
Germany, Curaçao, Cote d’Ivoire, Ecuador
Germany’s No. 9 FIFA ranking is deceptive, as they showed during practices at the Revolution Training Center and a 3-1 dismantling of the US in East Hartford in 2023. But both the Elephants and La Tricolor had strong qualifying campaigns, displayed exceptional defense, and are known for their physical play.
Group F
Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Albania/Poland/Sweden/Ukraine
The Netherlands have not lost in the World Cup since the 2010 final, but they have stumbled in penalties, eliminated by Argentina in 2014 and 2022. Japan has had plenty of time to prepare, the first team to advance to the finals via qualification in March.
Group G
Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
Belgium managed to avoid European colleagues, almost guaranteeing advancement.
Group H
Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay
Two-time champion Uruguay is favored win the battle to finish second to Spain.
Group I
France, Senegal, Norway, Bolivia/Iraq/Suriname
France has reached two successive finals and played in four of the last seven title games, but will not have it easy.
Group J
Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan
The reigning champion Albiceleste should be able to pace themselves.
Group K
Portugal, Uzbekistan, Colombia, Congo DR/Jamaica/New Caledonia
Group leadership could come down to the last game, Portugal-Colombia in Miami on June 27. Democratic Republic of the Congo could challenge, but the Leopards first must qualify in a playoff with Jamaica and New Caledonia.
Group L
England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama
England failed to qualify for USA ’94, a relief to organizers concerned about hooligans. The country has transformed its soccer image since, presenting a team ranked No. 4 and a tamed down, though still high-spirited, following. The Three Lions vs. Croatia could be among the most competitive matches of the opening round, but both teams should advance.
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