What is Andrew Benintendi’s ceiling as a rookie?
Debate the answer with Chad Finn and Boston sports fans at The Sports Q.
COMMENTARYWelcome to Boston.com’s Sports Q, our daily conversation, initiated by you and moderated by Chad Finn, about a compelling topic in Boston sports. Here’s how it works: You submit questions to Chad through Twitter, Facebook, email, his Friday chat, and any other outlet you prefer. He’ll pick one each day (except for Saturday) to answer, then we’ll take the discussion to the comments, where the mission is to have a sports conversation with occasional controversy, but without condescension or contrarianism. Chad will stop by the comments section several times per day to navigate. But you drive the conversation.
Saw you mentioned in your column the other day that you think Andrew Benintendi would easily win the AL Rookie of the Year. I agree with you, but what do you think the ceiling is during his first full season? It’s not ’75 Fred Lynn, but what is it? We need a comp here, Finn. – Kevin O.
No, it’s not ’75 Fred Lynn, because ’75 Fred Lynn — who slashed .331/.401/.566 with 21 homers, 105 RBIs en route to becoming the first player to win the AL Rookie of the Year and MVP awards in the same season — was a here-I-am comet that zips through our sky once every generation or so.
Benintendi has some similarities — a graceful swing with no wasted motion, casual confidence, and the ability to spray the ball from the Monster to Pesky’s Pole. He’s the consensus best prospect in baseball. But he’ll have had a heck of a career if his best season matches Lynn’s first.
He might be Lynn aesthetically, but that would be an unfair expectation. Here’s a better comp, at least as a hitter:
Mike Greenwell.
Yep, I’m serious. I know, Gator drove me nuts in the end, too. He lost his power early — late in his Red Sox career he set an unofficial record for 4-3 groundouts — and seemed to have a faulty GPS system in left field that always led him directly into Ellis Burks’s knees.
But as a young hitter? Let’s put it this way: Through the first couple seasons of his career, he seemed a rightful heir to Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski and Jim Rice as Fenway’s superstar patrolman in left field. At age 23 in 1987, he slashed .328/.386/.570, with 19 homers and 89 RBIs. In 1988, he was so good he was the runner-up to human juice box Jose Canseco in the AL MVP balloting, with a .325/.416/.531 line, 22 homers, and 119 RBIs.
But it’s Greenwell’s third season that I think makes for a reasonable high-end expectation for Benintendi in his first full season: .308/.370/.443 with 14 homers, 36 doubles, and 13 stolen bases. That is a great season.
I do think it will take a little bit of time for the home run power to come around. Last season, at three levels (Salem, Portland and Boston, with no layover in Triple A), Benintendi hit 11 home runs in 526 plate appearances.
I believe — I’m convinced — that Benintendi is going to be a consistently excellent hitter right away. And, of course, he’s already a far superior defensive outfielder to what Greenie was on his best day.
What do you say? Who does Benintendi remind you of? More relevant to the actual question, is there a specific single-season performance in the Red Sox’ past that he will essentially duplicate. I bet you don’t come up with one better than Greenie ’89. Dare to set me straight in the comments.
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