Panic switch
Concede the AL East if you like. Even with a three-game set against the Yankees approaching this weekend at Fenway Park, a seven-game deficit in late August isn’t a particularly easy thing to overcome.
But, sorry, last I checked, the Red Sox were still tied for the wild card lead.
Or, did I miss something?
No, it’s true. The 67-51 Red Sox are knotted with the Texas Rangers for the final playoff spot in the American League. Go ahead, see for yourself. Yet, almost half of the more than 13,000 who responded to a Boston.com panic level poll are convinced that the Red Sox are done. Typical, sure. The question of rationality is a whole separate issue.
I can’t say it any better than commenter denver_soxfan, so I’ll just use his words: “52.7% (at the time of this post, anyway) of you need a slap in the head.”
Here’s a little history for all those woe-is-me Sox fans populating every office, home, and tavern in New England. Five years ago on this date, the Red Sox were 67-52, tied with the Texas Rangers for the wild card lead. Anyone recall what happened over the next 12 weeks?
Something to do with a parade, if I recall correctly.
So, as we stand right now, the 2009 Red Sox are actually a game better than the 2004 World Series champions were at the same time period (the Rangers ended up finishing nine games behind the Red Sox in ‘04). Heck, last year on Aug. 19, Boston had two more losses (73-53), and in 2007 it had just one fewer (74-50) en route to the division title and another World Series win.
Panic? Please.
Granted, the negative Nellies among us have some ammo in their “Wait ‘Til Next Year” mantra. Since the All-Star break, the Red Sox are just 13-17, and have lost their lead in the division to the white-hot Yankees, who demoralized the Sox in a four-game sweep almost a fortnight ago. Boston lost two of three over the weekend in Texas, where it is now 1-5 in the second half of the season.
Since July 17, the Sox have gone from three games up on the Yankees to seven games behind. They’ve scored only 141 runs over that stretch, eighth-best in the league.
But here’s the thing: The Red Sox haven’t even played as many games at home in the second half as they’ve managed to lose on the road. That’s significant for a team that is 38-18 at the Fens.
So, let’s crunch the numbers, shall we? Even if the Red Sox continue their awful second-half pace (.462 winning percentage) on the road over the remaining 18 away games, they’ll still come away with eight or nine wins (8.3). Let’s go under and say eight, which would make them 8-10 the rest of the way. At home, it’s a different story, where they play at a .636 clip with 25 games remaining. At that rate, it’s another 16 wins in the books (15.9). Let’s tack on one more win because they play Baltimore five times.
Give or take, that’s a 92-70 record if the Red Sox continue to play as poorly as they have during the second half of the season. That’s just three games off their wild card-winning record of 95-67 one year ago.
Will 92 wins assure them the wild card? Probably not, which means there is some level of concern to be had, particularly with a pitching staff that has come down to Beckett, Lester and pray for whatever pestilence you prefer. But keep in mind, the Sox have played six fewer games at home than they have on the road, and have scored 29 more times there, an added bonus when you’re looking at seven more games at Fenway than on the road the rest of the way.
No, it hasn’t been pretty and there’s plenty to complain about, not particularly in this order: JD Drew, Terry Francona’s dedication to Jason Varitek, Theo Epstein’s failed reclamation project of John Smoltz, John Smoltz, Jason Bay’s streaking, Jonathan Papelbon’s shakiness, the David Ortiz PED controversy, the curious case of Adam LaRoche and Casey Kotchman, Brad Penny’s second-half struggles, Daisuke Matsuzaka, the never-ending rotating door at shortstop, and JD %$#@*$ Drew. To name a few.
But to classify this team as done is foolish if only for the number of games still in front of it. In the end, the Red Sox only have to be a little bit better than they’ve been in this dreadful second half to make the postseason. Realistically, they need to go 28-16 the remainder of the way, a realistic goal considering they play 25 more times at home base, where starting Friday they play 10 straight games, one fewer than they’ve played there the entire second half.
So, calm down. Relax.
Consider this a collective slap in the head.
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