Steelers-Patriots prediction roundup

By Eric Wilbur

November 27, 2008

2 minutes to read

This is new. Or at least, new again.

A late season game with playoff implications? In New England, that usually means fighting for the No. 1 seed and a bye. But Sunday, it’s the Patriots needing a win to stay on pace in the wild card hunt.

The wild card. Huh. How, er, quaint.

The last time these Pats went to the postseason via the wild card, it was 1998, Pete Carroll was still in town, and the Pats were one-and-done after a 25-10 loss to the Jaguars.

Since then, the Patriots have been to the playoffs six times, four times winning the AFC title, three times winning the Super Bowl, each by way of the division crown.

Not that the division in ’08 is all but lost – the Pats are just a game behind the Jets heading into Week 13 – but New York has looked better than most AFC teams as of late, and has a cupcake schedule down the stretch.

Not so the Patriots.

Well, OK, that’s a lie because the remaining docket is somewhat of a joke.

After Sunday.

The Steelers come to town with their lockdown defense, the final “real” test for a team fighting for a chance to play beyond its 16th game. A loss and a Jets win, and the division is pretty much done. A loss and wins by the Ravens and Colts doesn’t make things any easier. Mix in the fact that wins by the Dolphins and Bills with a New England loss would even the three rivals, and people would be looking at the Patriots in a whole new light come Monday morning.

Sunday could be the difference between the playoffs and no playoffs, wild card or not. The last time we had one of those it was 2002, the last season New England was left off the guest list.

The division is usually wrapped up by now. This time, we’ve got some intrigue, which might not be as comfortable indeed, but in the long run, isn’t it more compelling?

Unless New England loses, in which case you can add confusing into the mix as well.

But hey, wild card t-shirts. We haven’t had those in some time.

Whom they’re picking

Our roundup of pundit picks for Sunday’s Steelers-Patriots showdown:

Jim
McBride, Boston Globe: Patriots. “Steelers safety Anthony Smith guaranteed a victory last season against the Patriots. He was then summarily embarrassed by Tom Brady. Poor guy. Now he has to deal with Matt Cassel.”
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Steelers 20, Patriots 17. “Here are two playoff teams in a Game of the Week-worthy duel: Pittsburgh’s exceptional defense vs. the men of stormin’ Matt Cassel. Give me the visiting Thieves, with extra time to prepare, over a Pats team coming off an emotional division win.”
Peter King, Sports Illustrated: Patriots 20, Steelers 16. “In the last four weeks, Matt Cassel has outpassed Ben Roethlisberger by 93 yards a game. You know why I think he outplays Roethlisberger in Foxboro on Sunday? Because there’s no part of the playbook Josh McDaniels doesn’t trust him with now. With the leash off, I say Cassel will have enough gumption to lead four scoring drives.”
Globe staff: Four of five pick the Patriots.
ESPN.com staff: Split between the Patriots and Steelers (of those who have picked).
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Patriots 24, Steelers 20. “Matt Cassel has thrown for at least 400 yards the past two games. Can he do it again? Not likely against the Pittsburgh defense that leads the league. But if the Pats are to win, they have to throw the ball. Cassel will have success with Randy Moss down the field. This will be higher scoring than we think.”
CBS Sports staff: Four of six pick the Patriots to cover. (New England is a one-point favorite.)
Cold, Hard, Football Facts: Steelers 20, Patriots 17. “In what looks to be a very even matchup, the Patriots’ vulnerability to the Big Play could be what ultimately decides this pivotal AFC showdown.”
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Patriots 23, Steelers 20. Running on Pittsburgh usually is a futile effort, so expect the Pats, the team that dares to go pass-happy against stout defensive fronts, to stick with what has gotten them 79 points over the past two games. Running back Kevin Faulk will be a key target on screens and dumpoffs. Cassel can also tuck the ball and run if he’s in trouble.”
USA Today staff: Six of eight pick the Patriots.
Yahoo! staff: Michael Silver goes with Pittsburgh. Jason Cole and Charles Robinson pick New England.
Peter Schrager, FOXSports.com: Patriots 20, Steelers 13. “Matt Cassel became just the fifth QB in NFL history to throw for 400+ yards in back-to-back games last week, joining a crew that includes Dan Fouts, Dan Marino, Phil Simms and the legend that is Billy Volek. Cassel was humble about the achievement, and in classic Belichickian fashion, shifted any and all focus on to Sunday’s game versus Pittsburgh; a game I just can’t see the revitalized Patriots losing at
home.”
T-Bone: Steelers.
Our pick: Patriots 23, Steelers 21. In his last three games, Roethlisberger has tossed just one touchdown against three interceptions. Cassel, on the other hand: six touchdowns, one interception. Sunday won’t be as easy for the Patriots QB, going up against the No. 1 pass defense in the league, but on the flip side, don’t expect the banged-up Roethlisberger to take too much advantage of New England’s Swiss cheese secondary either.
The numbers overwhelmingly say Steelers, particularly at a time when defense counts most. But with a revived Patriots team playing at home post-Thanksgiving, when they are historically at their best (48-9 since 2001), it’s tough not to pick New England in a game it absolutely must have if the playoffs are to remain a possibility.