Preview roundup

By Eric Wilbur

September 4, 2008

6 minutes to read

Unless you’re one of those sticking to your guns that this is finally the year that the Buffalo Bills make a run at the division title, odds are that the Patriots are atop your preseason prognostications.

But let’s dispense with the thought that the AFC East is still to be considered the weakest in football.

As much as we tend to overrate Brett Favre, he’s going to benefit greatly from the Jets’ additions of linemen Damien Woody and Alan Faneca, both considered a bit long in the tooth by some, but two guys the decimated Patriots would certainly like to have right now. A playoff team two seasons ago, the Jets could be the latest to follow the path of having a downturn before returning stronger a season later.

Of course, there was hope for that sort of upswing last season in Miami, and instead they ended up 1-15. But the Dolphins weren’t as bad as their record, considering the season-ending injury to running back Ronnie Brown, the trade of receiver Chris Chambers, and the fact that Cam Cameron was their head coach. They could go 8-8 and finish last in this division. Really.

Then there are the Bills, everybody’s favorite child for years running now. For something like the 11th season in a row (I’ve lost count) they have a young, emerging defense, and the hope is that quarterback Trent Edwards can continue what he started in 2007, when he burst on the scene with a series of admirable performances. Mix in versatile second-year running back Marshawn Lynch, and you know, those people might finally be able to say, “I told you so.”

Could both wild cards come from the East? With the Jaguars, Steelers, Chargers, Colts, and Titans, as well as possibly the Browns and intriguing Texans, that’s a hard sell. Is it the laughable proposition it was a season ago? Nope.

The division still belongs to the Patriots, though. Randy Moss is still Randy Moss. Tom Brady is still Tom Brady. (Somewhat bold and unrelated prediction: Jabar Gaffney will have more catches than Wes Welker.) But the line isn’t the cohesive force it once was, and the secondary has to be re-tooled . . . again. Age didn’t catch up to the defense a year ago, but will it this season, despite the additions of Jerod Mayo and Terrence Wheatley? Ellis Hobbs is your starting cornerback. Billy Yates at right guard. There are flaws. It’s just that the competition still has more.

Here’s how folks from around the nation see New England’s season turning out:

Boston Globe staff: Dan Shaughnessy: 13-3, Chargers over Cowboys in Super Bowl. Mike Reiss: 12-4, Saints over Chargers in Super Bowl. Chris Gasper: 12-4, Patriots over Eagles in Super Bowl.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: AFC Champion. “A tired pick, we know. But the Patriots were one miracle play away last year from the first 19-0 season in history. They’re 23-2 in their last 25 games, and both those losses came only after super-human efforts by their opponents.”
ESPN.com staff: Patriots as AFC East champs across the board. Only James Walker, Paul Kuharsky, and Matt Mosley pick New England as the Super Bowl champs on the 16-person panel.
Gene Wojciechowski, ESPN.com: Patriots over the Eagles. “The Patriots have some soft spots, but they also have talent, motivation and the easiest schedule in the league. History and undefeated seasons are wonderful, but all they really want is to get their hands back on the Lombardi Trophy. They will.”
CNNSI.com staff: Patriots as AFC East champs across the board. Peter King, Dr. Z, Ross Tucker, and Adam Duerson pick New England as the Super Bowl champs on the nine-person panel.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports.com: Colts over Patriots in AFC Championship game.
Clark Judge, CBS Sports.com: San Diego over New England in AFC Championship game.
USA Today staff: Patriots as AFC East champs across the board. Sean
Leahy and Tom Pedulla pick New England as the Super Bowl champs on the eight-person panel.
Bob Glauber, Newsday: Patriots as AFC East champs; Giants repeat as Super Bowl champs in the Eli Bowl.
Jerry Magee, San Diego Tribune: Patriots win AFC East. “Talk about slam dunks. A team that captures a 16-game competition by nine games, as the Patriots did a year ago, clearly is superior. The New Englanders were 16-0; their nearest rival, if you could classify it as a rival, was Buffalo, 7-9.”
Dallas Morning News staff: Patriots as AFC East champs across the board. Todd Archer, Rich Gosselin, and Kevin Sherington pick New England as Super Bowl champs – all over Dallas – on the eight-person panel.
Nancy Gay, San Francisco Chronicle: Patriots as AFC champs. “Expect the Patriots to make it back to the postseason, and don’t be stunned if one of their longtime division victims, revamped Buffalo, makes a return to the playoffs.”
NFL “Czar”, FoxSports.com: “The Patriots will be fortunate to win 10 games. After chasing immortality last season, New England is very suspect on the offensive line and that’s horrible news for Tom Brady, who has skipped the entire preseason. Brady’s foot may be fine, but every game could look like the Super Bowl if the line doesn’t improve. Meanwhile, the secondary is very shaky, too.”
Judy Batista, NY Times: Patriots as AFC (sorry, A.F.C.) No. 1 seed. “The Patriots are about the last team in sports to need a break, but they got a big one: the easiest schedule in the league. As usual, the midseason showdown with the Colts figures to be their biggest test until the playoffs. And rest assured, the Patriots will make the playoffs. They may not be perfect again, but for all the hoopla their division rivals generated in the last few weeks, no team is close.”
Yahoo! sports: Michael Silver and Jason Cole both pick the Chargers to represent the AFC.
Our picks: AFC East: Patriots. North: Browns. South: Colts. West: Chargers. Wild cards: Jets, Steelers.
NFC East: Cowboys. North: Packers. South: Saints. West: Seahawks. Wild cards: Chicago, Minnesota.
Chargers over Patriots in the AFC Championship. Saints over Chargers in the Super Bowl.
You have to figure it’s now or never for San Diego. While the possible loss of Shawne Merriman is of concern, I hear that PEDs can do wonders for torn ligaments. (Everybody with me, Rodney fans. “He was just trying to help the team.”) LaDainian Tomlinson is 29 now, and with few great seasons ahead of him, maybe he won’t spend the bulk of his time whining. All bets are off on that one, but after his gutsy performance in last year’s AFC title game, it might be a safe one to predict Philip Rivers morphs into a top-tier starting quarterback, and he’s going to take great pleasure in having a season of Chris Chambers at his disposal.
In the NFC, with the addition of Jeremy Shockey, Drew Brees now has two targets to throw to, a dangerous thought when you consider what the man did with one (Marques Colston) the past two seasons. The X factor here is whether New Orleans gets the exciting Reggie Bush circa the end of the 2006 season, or the drab that we watched all of 2007. And hey, Randall Gay.
As for the Patriots, valid concerns about the secondary and offensive line aside, they are still among the elite teams, and could conceivably go 15-1 with the schedule gift-wrapped for them by the NFL. We refuse to classify this as a Super Bowl hangover, because the second-half Patriots of 2007 were not the juggernaut that we considered them to be for the entire season. After beating the Bills, 56-10, Nov. 18, New England won three of its final six games by three points (including the 38-35 win over the New York Giants), beat the Jaguars in the playoffs, got by the Chargers with a nine-point victory, and . . . well, you know.
The Giants proved the Pats were beatable. Twice. And it’s safe to figure more than a couple teams will figure out the same in a season in which the Patriots are weaker than they were in their historic campaign.