AFC breakdown

The happiest person to see the NFL kick off tonight will be commissioner Roger Goodell, who’ll get to trade in all the controversies of the NFL’s offseason — dogfighting, HGH, Pac Man Jones — for actual action. And much like every other controversy in the league during the season, it will all be swept under the rug for the next four months. Yesterday’s steroid controversy is today’s Top 10 Peyton commercials.

The NFL indeed has its problems, but because it’s the most popular game in the country, with the shortest schedule, we put aside those moral issues in lieu of hard-hitting Sunday afternoon fun. Hey, let baseball deal with the drug problem. Grab a Coors Light.

The NFL has mandated that you read the following AFC preview in 45 seconds, so you’d better start now.

AFC East
Gone are the cocky predictions of a 16-0 season, so those loser 1972 Dolphins can get their champagne ready early. For as much as the Patriots are what Theo Epstein would call an “uberteam†the losses of Rodney Harrison and Richard Seymour are going to sting. The good news? You don’t win the division in September. So, when the Jets beat the Patriots on Sunday (which will likely happen) let’s not forget the opener against the Bills in ’03, OK? These things take time, and the teams that are better in December than they were in September are the ones playing in February. Duh. As for Mangenius and company, let’s remember the track record that has surprising playoff teams taking a step back for a season before returning to the limelight. Maybe that’s why we’re a little high on Miami, which many people picked for the playoffs last preseason after a resurgent ’05. As ancient as Trent Green might be, Ronnie Brown can be the real deal, despite being pushed in camp, and the defense is better than people think. Buffalo took some offseason hits with the losses of Takeo Spikes and Nate Clemens from a defense that was every bit as good as the overhyped Panthers last season. J.P. Losman to Lee Evans, fun to watch. Marshawn Lynch’s slow acclimation, not.
Prognosis: Has anyone in America NOT picked the Patriots?
1. Patriots — 11-5
2. Dolphins — 9-7
3. Jets — 9-7
4. Bills — 6-10
AFC North
I hate to break Willis McGahee’s bubble, but this is a league that features LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, and Larry Johnson. So when McGahee says he’s the best back in the NFL, well, no he isn’t. But now that he’s in Baltimore, he is no doubt in the Top 10. The Ravens defense is still the best in the NFL, and now that they have offense (provided Steve McNair didn’t age overnight), they’ll be waiting for the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Looking to shed their criminal image perhaps, the Bengals have recently overloaded on Ivy Leaguers. Overall, they’ll play more like the Big Ten. The Steelers enter the season with neither Bill Cowher nor Joey Porter, but still possess a top-notch defense under Mike Tomlin. If Ben Roethlisberger can find a way for Santonio Holmes to use some super glue on his gloves, they’ll be back in the postseason. As for the Browns, well…life is too short to talk about the Browns.
Prognosis: Prior to the AFC title game, McGahee boasts he can walk on water. Belichick has other ideas.
1. Ravens — 13-3
2. Bengals — 11-5
3. Steelers — 10-6
4. Browns — 3-13
AFC South
The Indy Star’s Bob Kravitz has the defending champion Colts going 11-5, one of those losses in the annual AFC title game in November to the Patriots. “Sorry, but the Pats have loaded up. What kinds of numbers will quarterback Tom Brady put up when he’s surrounded by a decent cast of receivers, including Randy Moss? Adalius Thomas is also going to be a huge help to that linebacking corps. Not to worry, though: They’ll meet again in the playoffs. Because it’s the law.†Can’t argue with that. The Colts could go 8-8 in this sad division and win by default. Yes, Vince Young might be better, but his weapons are abysmal. Yes, Houston might have the solution at quarterback finally in Matt Schaub, and Mario Williams might finally end the Reggie Bush jokes, but the rest of the defense is still suspect at best. Yes, the Jaguars always seem to sneak up on everyone every year, and Maurice Jones-Drew is a budding star, but…wait, the Jaguars still exist, right?
Prognosis: The Colts charge to the playoffs — on the legs of Joseph Addai, not the arm of Peyton Manning.
1. Colts — 11-5
2. Texans — 7-9
3. Jaguars — 7-9
4. Titans — 5-11
AFC West
Oh, the last we saw those San Diego Chargers, Tomlinson was crying and the city of San Diego was taking Ron Burgundy’s parting words to heart in a city-wide reflection of its overwhelming pride. Gone is Marty Schottenheimer, in is Norv Turner, which only tells us that the Chargers fired Marty too late to find anyone they actually wanted. There will be no 14-2 season this time around. The Chargers will relinquish the division back to the Broncos, who reloaded their already solid defense with Simeon Rice, Dre’ Bly, and Samuel Adams. Depending on how well Jay Cutler hooks up with Javon Walker, the Broncos will be back as one of the premier teams in the game. Damon Huard was a surprise for the Chiefs last season, but the odds of him repeating that aren’t good. Herm Edwards should have a classic sound byte by Week 4. And then, there are the Raiders, who in an attempt to be coy, refuse to reveal which quarterback — Daunte Culpepper or Josh McNown, will start Sunday against the Lions. According to the Sacramento Bee, head coach Lane Kiffin “might” announce whether Jake Grove or Jeremy Newberry will start at center Sunday. This might be the most suspenseful announcement Raiders fans have to look forward to all year. Otherwise, same old, same old East of the Bay.
Prognosis: Denver takes a step up, while San Diego takes one back.
1. Broncos — 10-6
2. Chargers — 9-7
3. Chiefs — 8-8
4. Raiders — 3-13
Wild cards: Bengals, Steelers
AFC Champion: Patriots
Super Bowl champion: Patriots over… (NFC preview)