Deja review

Yes, Josh Beckett might end up the Cy Young Award winner this season in the American League, but if they had to make the deal to bring him to Boston all over again, would the Red Sox do it?

The New York Sun’s Tim Marchman makes the case that even in the infancy of the deal, it could turn out to one day be a debacle for the Red Sox considering the type of numbers Hanley Ramirez is putting up with the Marlins. But in the meantime, at least, so far, so good.

Imagine an alternate world where the trade had never been made. In this world, Mike Lowell, the Sox third baseman who came over from Florida in the deal because the Marlins didn’t want to pay his salary, is still playing in Miami; Boston first baseman Kevin Youkilis is playing third base and hitting as well as he is now. Ramirez is at short. The Sox have an average first baseman, say Sean Casey, to whom they’re paying $7 million a year, and to fill the spot Beckett takes in the rotation they have an average pitcher, say Jon Garland, to whom they’re paying $13 million.
Oddly enough, this is effectively a wash. Having Casey/Youkilis on the corners rather than Lowell/ Youkilis would cost about 10 runs on offense; having Garland rather than Beckett in the rotation would cost around 25 runs in pitching. Having Ramirez rather than Lugo would represent a gain of around 70 runs on offense. That’s a gain of 35 runs to the Red Sox. But then you have to factor in defense, and while that’s really hard to pin down, the difference at third base would be worth a few runs, while the difference at shortstop would be enormous, probably somewhere from 10 to 20 runs. Ramirez is very bad, and Lugo is good. Add it all up, and the Red Sox would be just a win or two better with Ramirez. They’d be $9 million or so richer, too, and off the hook for Lugo’s ridiculous contract, but that doesn’t count so much for such a rich team.

In related news, first-year Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez got a bloody nose when he walked into a glass partition at a Starbucks in the New York Hilton lobby last week.
“I had blood coming down. Coffee all over me,” he told the Palm Beach Post. “The coffee was still on the glass and you could see my nose print.”
This story makes us instantly like Fredi Gonzalez if only because…well, we’re not casting the first stone for sure.