The fix is in
Halfway through the season, it’s time to look back at some preseason predictions to find out where we erred, and where we lucked out.
NL West
What we said then:
1. Dodgers
2. Padres
3. Diamondbacks
4. Giants
5. Rockies
How it stands now:
1. Padres
2. Dodgers 1 1/2 games back
3. Diamondbacks 1 1/2 games back
4. Rockies 8 games back
5. Giants 11 1/2 games back
Fresh off putting the whooping on the Red Sox and Yankees, the Rockies were primed to become the surprise story of the baseball season. And then they went back to their normal losing ways, are 2-8 in their last 10 games, and are free-falling into last place in the West. So it goes. We predicted good things for the D-Backs, who are still right in the race, but this is still between the pitching-rich Dodgers and Padres, with one winning the wild card – and any potential Jake Peavy-Brad Penny showdowns the remainder of the year cemented as must-watch TV. Seems like just two years ago that 81 wins would have given you the division, if only because it was. The Giants, of course, have that Bonds thingy and not much else to pin their hopes on.
NL Central
What we said then:
1. Brewers
2. Cardinals
3. Cubs
4. Astros
5. Reds
6. Pirates
How it stands now:
1. Brewers
2. Cubs 6 1/2 games back
3. Cardinals 9 1/2 games back
4. Astros 12 1/2 games back
5. Pirates 13 games back
6. Reds 17 games back
The Brewers have made us look good for three months, but you have to be concerned somewhat about how the Cubs are surging. Somewhat. Chicago is 19-9 since June 2, but in that time has gained just one whole game on Milwaukee, which survived its own rough stretch to get hot again at the right time. Another second-half streak won’t be in the cards for Houston this season, and the Cardinals won’t have the opportunity to defend their title. About the best that can be said about the Pirates and Reds is that there are only three more months remaining.
NL East
What we said then:
1. Phillies
2. Mets
3. Braves
4. Marlins
5. Nationals
How it stands now:
1. Mets
2. Braves 4 games back
3. Phillies 5 games back
4. Marlins 9 games back
5. Nationals 13 1/2 games back
OK, so the Phillies were the pick mainly for their pickup of Freddy Garcia, who at 1-5 with a 5.90 ERA has been a disaster and is now on the disabled list with a sore right shoulder. So much for that. We’ll join the crowd with the Mets taking the division, as they are the most talented team of the bunch. Besides, if Pedro Martinez can come back effectively, who doesn’t want to see them up against the Red Sox in the World Series? The Braves might be the most boring good team in baseball; the Marlins might be ready for a July fire sale (Dontrelle Willis? Miguel Cabrera?), and the Nationals…well, it’s best left unsaid.
AL West
What we said then:
1. Angels
2. Rangers
3. A’s
4. Mariners
How it stands now:
1. Angels
2. Mariners 4 1/2 games back
3. A’s 9 games back
4. Rangers 17 games back
Yes, that’s Texas at No. 2. Here’s what we said about them. “This year’s Tigers? Maybe.” Uh, maybe not. Still, the Angels very well might be the best team in baseball, and their 51-31 record is the best in franchise history after 82 games. For some reason we don’t mention John Lackey when the discussion turns to the top pitchers in the game, but it’s obvious that we should. Seattle has been a surprise, but not as surprising as Mike Hargrove’s “the passion is gone” resignation on Sunday. The A’s are just 3-7 in their last 10 games, and have everyone wondering when their second-half surge is going to begin. Soon, but not enough to catch the Angels.
AL Central
What we said then:
1. Tigers
2. Indians
3. White Sox
4. Twins
5. Royals
How it stands now:
1. Indians
2. Tigers 2 games back
3. Twins 7 1/2 games back
4. White Sox 13 1/2 games back
5. Royals 15 1/2 games back
How are baseball fans supposed to choose between Hideki Okajima and Jeremy Bonderman for the final AL All-Star slot? It was almost May by the time Bonderman got his first win of the season (April 30), and since then he’s only gone 9-1. Meanwhile, Okajima has been the key to Boston’s bullpen success. In reality, both should be on the team already in lieu of say, oh, Gil Meche of the once-again sad Royals. The Tigers desperately need to fix their bullpen woes (their relievers’ 5.18 ERA is 27th-worst in baseball), hoping that Joel Zumaya can come back soon. But in the end, Bonderman and Justin Verlander, as well as the AL’s best offense, will be the reasons the Tigers take the Central, with the Indians, Twins, and A’s battling it out in the final month for the wild card slot.
AL East
What we said then:
1. Red Sox
2. Yankees
3. Blue Jays
4. Devil Rays
5. Orioles
How it stands now:
1. Red Sox
2. Blue Jays 10 1/2 games back
3. Yankees 11 games back
4. Orioles 14 games back
5. Devil Rays 17 games back
Of course we recognized the pitching, but one statement in that April summary also makes us a little fearful when it comes to analyzing the Red Sox: “The lineup isn’t nearly as good as everyone thinks.” Of course, it’s for different reasons than the 7-8-9 combination of Jason Varitek, Coco Crisp, and Dustin Pedroia that we had initially concerned ourselves with. David Ortiz has not hit a home run at Fenway since April, Mike Lowell is hitting .217 since June 1, and Julio Lugo is attempting to create new ways for us all to honor the memory of Mario Mendoza. The Yankees have been an enjoyable implosion though, and are not coming back. If any team is going to make a run, it might be the Jays, but without B.J. Ryan, don’t expect it to last long. The Devil Rays, who finally arrive at Fenway tonight, have lost eight in a row and now have the worst record in the AL. A sense of normalcy for your holiday week.
Postseason Awards:
What we said then:
AL MVP: Travis Hafner, Indians
Hafner’s power numbers have been OK, but he’s hitting just .257 for the Indians. Besides, when a guy like Alex Rodriguez has an outside shot at the Triple Crown, he’s your MVP. Now if we’re voting for most valuable instead of most offensive, as it should be, other candidates would be Vladimir Guerrero, Magglio Ordonez, and Ichiro.
NL MVP: Albert Pujols, Cardinals
Despite his team’s down year, Pujols remains a worthy candidate (16 homers, 51 RBIs), but is likely to lose votes to players like Chase Utley and Jose Reyes. It’s tough to ignore what Prince Fielder has done for the Brewers though, his 27 home runs leading the National League.
AL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
Uh, no. Halladay has been OK, but he’s barely All-Star material, never mind Cy Young. We could toss out names like Josh Beckett, C.C. Sabathia, and Johan Santana here, but it’s a waste of time if Dan Haren keeps doing what he’s doing.
NL Cy Young: Ben Sheets, Brewers
As good as Sheets has been (10-3, 3.19), Penny and Peavy have simply been the class of the National League. Flip a coin between the two.
AL Rookie of the Year: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
And the funny thing is, his biggest competitors for this award are teammates Okajima and Pedroia. We’ll stick with Matsuzaka for now, but Okajima remains a serious threat.
NL Rookie of the Year: Chris Iannetta, Rockies
Seeing as he’s hit .205, probably not. Instead, look to one of Troy Tulowitzki, Hunter Pence or Ryan Braun.
The playoffs
What we said then:
Division winners: Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers
Wild cards: Indians, Padres
Division series: Red Sox over Indians; Tigers over Angels
Padres over Phillies; Dodgers over Brewers
LCS: Tigers over Red Sox; Dodgers over Padres
World Series: Tigers over Dodgers
We’re sticking with all the same players, aside from the Phillies. We’re not as in love with the Tigers as we were heading into the season, although if they can fix their bullpen isues, then watch out. The Dodgers and Mets are the two best teams in the National League, which should give Red Sox fans plenty of rooting interests the next few months. Red Sox vs. the Mets, Pedro, and 1986, or Red Sox vs. the Dodgers, Grady Little and Nomar? You think those potential World Series matchups might have a story line or two?
What we say now:
Division winners: Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Brewers, Dodgers
Wild cards: Indians, Padres
Division series: Red Sox over Indians; Angels over Tigers
Mets over Padres; Dodgers over Brewers
LCS: Red Sox over Angels; Mets over Dodgers
World Series: Red Sox over Mets
Of course, check back in three months when this is completely irrelevant.
