Here’s a look at where the Patriots sit in the AFC playoff picture
Their odds of making the playoffs are quite high, but the division is completely up for grabs.
With three games remaining – against the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Miami Dolphins – the Patriots’ odds of making the playoffs are extremely high (98 percent), but their chances of winning the division (55 percent) aren’t nearly as close to a lock.
They currently sit at 9-5, and a win over the Bills and a Dolphins loss to the New Orleans Saints would clinch the division. The Patriots currently hold the 3-seed, the Bills the 7-seed at 8-6, and the Dolphins are still “in the hunt” at 7-7 despite winning six straight.
A whopping 13 teams in the AFC are currently at .500 or better and firmly in the playoff picture. Though teams such as the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders’ chances are bleak, they’re still mathematically in the running.
The number of teams that could make it will likely dwindle after this week and certainly in the coming weeks. This year, with seven teams instead of six making the playoffs, only the 1-seed gets a first-round bye. Here’s how it currently looks:
- Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) – They started the season 3-4 but have won seven straight since and have quietly been the best team in the NFL since the start of November. They have the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, and Broncos remaining.
- Tennessee Titans (10-5) – The Titans rallied to beat the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday to move into the No. 2 spot, but a win over the Bills would put the Patriots back in that position. The Patriots hold the tiebreaker because they beat the Titans.
- New England Patriots (9-5) – Everything was rosy for the Patriots until a Week 15 loss to the Indianapolis Colts set them back. The Patriots can clinch a playoff spot this week if they win and several other teams lose. “To clinch a playoff spot, the Patriots would need to win and get either losses by the Raiders and Chargers, or losses by the Colts and Bengals, or losses by the Colts, Ravens and Steelers, or losses by the Colts and Chargers, or losses by the Ravens, Browns and Steelers,” per ESPN.
- Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) – The Bengals are currently back in front in a wild AFC North. They’ll win the division if they win out, but the Ravens (8-6) and Steelers (7-6-1) are also in the mix. The Browns (7-7) even have an outside chance. The Bengals and Ravens face each other this Sunday.
- Indianapolis Colts (8-6) – Fresh off a signature win over the Patriots, the Colts will look to keep the momentum rolling against the Arizona Cardinals this week. They have only a 2 percent chance to win the division but an 82 percent chance to make the playoffs. It’s possible the Patriots could get another crack at them in the first round.
- Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) – Los Angeles has a 73 percent chance to make the playoffs but just a 6 percent chance to surpass a Chiefs team they lost to last week. They face the Houston Texans, Broncos, and Raiders, which is a relatively easy schedule compared to some other contenders. They’re another possible first-round opponent for New England.
- Buffalo Bills (8-6) – If the Bills beat the Patriots on Sunday, all they have to do to win the division is get by the Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets. That’s why Sunday’s game is so important, because the winner has a clear upper hand to solidify home-field advantage. It’s possible the Patriots could get the 2-seed and the Bills the 7-seed to set up a matchup in the Wild Card round.
The Ravens, Steelers, Raiders, Dolphins, Browns, and Broncos are all in the running as well. The tiebreakers are as follows: head-to-head, win/loss/tie in conference play, win/loss/tie in common games, strength of victory, strength of schedule, and many other obscure rankings. The 11th tiebreaker is a coin toss, but it’s highly unlikely it will get to that point.
The Patriots beat the Bills once but face them Sunday, and lost to the Dolphins once but face them to finish the regular season. They beat the Titans, Chargers, and Browns but lost to the Colts. They haven’t faced the Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, Raiders, or Broncos.
New England is 7-2 in conference games, and the Bills are 5-5, which could potentially pay dividends for the Patriots. Losses to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys won’t help them in strength of victory but could help them slightly in strength of schedule if it gets to that point.
If they find a way to beat the Bills, Jaguars, and Dolphins, though, it’s extremely likely they’ll earn the No. 1 or 2 seed and won’t need to worry about the wild-card chaos.
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