How experts view Tom Brady and the Buccaneers’ chances against Washington and beyond
One person has them as the biggest threat among wild card teams to win it all.
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Tom Brady and the fifth-seeded Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) are set to face the fourth-seeded Washington Football Team (7-9) on the road in the opening round of the NFL Playoffs this Saturday at 8:15 p.m.
The Buccaneers are eight-point favorites. Many expect them to win, but not all see it unfolding that way.
Here’s a look at experts’ opinions on their chances, both in this game and big picture.
Benjamin Hoffman, The New York Times: Pick: Buccaneers. “Home field advantage shouldn’t be ignored, and Washington’s defense should give it a bright future, but Tampa Bay is expected to win easily. Tom Brady and the Bucs’ offense got into a groove, ending the season with a four-game streak in which they averaged 37 points a game. And Tampa Bay’s defense, which specializes in getting to the quarterback, should have a field day thanks to the limited mobility of Alex Smith, who is not 100 percent after a calf injury to the same leg that nearly ended his career.”
Jordan Dajani, CBS Sports: Pick: Buccaneers, 27-21. “Chase Young wanted Tom Brady, and he’s going to get him this weekend. The Bucs’ new quarterback is going to have his work cut out for him against this formidable defensive front, but can Young and Co. apply enough pressure to pull off the upset? Probably not, especially when you consider the fact that Washington will likely use two quarterbacks against Tampa Bay due to Alex Smith’s injury. While I have the Buccaneers winning this game, the spread is a different question. Brady has played horribly in prime time this year, so I’m leaning towards Washington covering.
Neil Paine, FiveThirtyEight: Pick: Buccaneers (-6): “Football Team has a great defense of its own (No. 4 in EPA), which might help slow Brady down some, but Alex Smith and Washington’s offense should struggle mightily to score against the Buccaneers. Our model gives Tampa Bay a 71 percent chance of moving Brady that much closer to his seventh Super Bowl ring.”
Sports Illustrated: Picks: Mostly Buccaneers. Mitch Goldich has them beating Washington and the New Orleans Saints before losing to the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game. Albert Breer, Jenny Vrentas, Conor Orr, Greg Bishop, Andrew Brandt, and Gary Gramling have them winning this weekend and losing after that. Michael Rosenberg, on the other hang, has them losing to Washington. Rosenberg’s reasoning: “Do I feel great about picking Washington to beat a much more talented Tampa team? I do not. But you’re looking at a man who picked the Lions to sneak into the playoffs. Public humiliation is sort of my thing. Washington has the formula to beat Tom Brady’s team: elite pass rush led by star rookie Chase Young and a QB, Alex Smith, who does not beat his own team.”
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Pick: Buccaneers. Iyer has the Buccaneers as the biggest threat among wild card teams to win it all, and he has them losing in the Super Bowl to the Kansas City Chiefs. “The Buccaneers (11-5) need to be the choice here with the GOAT QB flipping from the Patriots to the NFC. They dominated the NFC No. 1 seed Packers in the regular season and nearly came back to knock off the AFC No. 1 seed Chiefs, too. The Ravens and Lamar Jackson are intriguing as a No. 5, too, but Tom Brady is playing at an elite level and the Bucs have a complete team around him.”
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