Get the latest Boston sports news
Receive updates on your favorite Boston teams, straight from our newsroom to your inbox.
3 keys to Patriots beating Broncos in AFC Championship Game
Drake Maye and the Patriots' offense will have their hands full against a stout Denver defense.
Just one win separates the Patriots from Super Bowl LX.
And even with Mike Vrabel’s team set to battle against a backup QB in Jarrett Stidham on Sunday in the AFC championship game, New England’s head coach isn’t downplaying the challenge that lies ahead for his team at Empower Field at Mile High.
“I think we try to preach it through the entire offseason of being able to establish an identity that travels,” Vrabel said of New England heading on the road. “Overcoming mistakes that happen in the game, which there always are. I think that you have to be resilient. There’s going to be some swings of momentum.
Advertisement:
“You’re going to have to be able to handle the environment offensively and not put yourself in bad situations because your operation isn’t very good. So, there’s a lot of things that we try to practice, knowing that we’re going to have to play half of our games on the road.”
For all of the discourse regarding Bo Nix’s season-ending injury and Denver’s new offensive ceiling, Drake Maye and New England’s offense is still going to have their work cut out for themselves going up against an imposing Broncos defense.
Here are three keys for the Patriots if they want to punch their ticket to Santa Clara.
Limit turnovers
The Broncos’ path to an upset victory against the Patriots is pretty easy to map out.
Advertisement:
So long as Stidham takes care of the ball and limits his own mistakes, a conservative approach on offense from Denver might be enough to come away with a win. Especially if the Broncos’ defense forces Maye into some costly turnovers.
Much like how the Texans might have had a shot at beating New England last week had CJ Stroud not completely imploded (four interceptions), Denver’s defense has a chance to flip momentum in its favor if Maye makes poor decisions with the football.
As impressive as Maye has been in crunch-time situations against both the Chargers and Texans, he has been knocked for six fumbles (three lost) and two interceptions in those two postseason games.
Denver’s defense has been impressive all season long. During regular-season action, Denver ranked fourth in the league in points allowed per game (18.9) and fifth in yards allowed per contest (287.7).
But they weren’t the top team when it came to forcing turnovers, with their 14 takeaways during regular-season play ranking 26th in the NFL.
But last week’s overtime win against the Bills was a different story — as the Broncos picked off Josh Allen twice and recovered three more fumbles in that dramatic victory.
Be it generating strip-sacks by collapsing the pocket or elite corners like Patrick Surtain II being on the prowl in the secondary, there are several avenues for the Broncos to generate turnovers against New England if Maye isn’t careful.
Advertisement:
“We played in a lot of different environments. You’ve got to take care of the football,” Vrabel said of how New England has been so impressive on the road. “You’re going to have to try to find a way to win in critical situations at the end of the half, at the end of the game, whether that’s five-minute – I just think back to, defensively, getting stops in Miami, we made a critical kick.
“Tampa Bay, we executed at the end of half. Certain situations – five-minute in New Orleans. So, I think each game kind of has its own story, but you better take care of the football, especially in Denver.”
Find ways to counter Denver’s pass rush.
New England’s defense should be able to corral Stidham and the Broncos’ offense for a majority of Sunday’s meeting.
But the Patriots’ offense could be stuck in neutral as well if Denver’s potent pass rush doles out plenty of damage against Maye.
Denver led the NFL with 68 sacks during the regular season, 11 more than second-place Atlanta.
After having their hands full last week against Houston’s Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, it won’t get any easier this week against Nik Bonitto (14.0 sacks) and Zach Allen, who led the NFL with 47 quarterback hits this season.
The Broncos generate plenty of pressure with those two players leading the charge, with a pair of rookie linemen in Will Campbell and Jared Wilson tasked once again with keeping Maye upright in the pocket.
Advertisement:
Campbell in particular has labored against some of the top pass-rushers in the league over the last few weeks. After getting knocked for just six sacks allowed and a 4.7 percent pressure rate in the regular season, Campbell has surrendered three sacks and posted an 11 percent pressure rate in two playoff games.
Beyond needing a stronger showing from Campbell, expect New England to once again pull out all the stops to try and alleviate the pressure on Maye — be it rolling out “jumbo” packages, calling on running backs like Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson for blitz pick-ups, or asking Maye to roll out and move the pocket to extend plays.
New England could also make life easier on its quarterback if it can establish the run.
Denver’s run defense has been impressive this season — allowing 91.1 rush yards per game and just 3.9 yards per carry during the regular season. But Buffalo did gain 183 yards on the ground (5.1 yards per carry) last week, while New England is averaging 156.1 rushing yards per game over the last seven weeks.
This could be another big game for Stevenson, who has scored six touchdowns over that same seven-game stretch.
So long as Maye can hold onto the ball, he should have the means to land a few punches against a tough Broncos defense on Sunday.
During New England’s eight road games this season, Maye has completed 72.1 percent of his passes for 2,186 yards with 17 touchdowns, three interceptions and a 120.2 passer rating.
Advertisement:
“I think playing on the road, one of the coolest things is coming off the field at their place, with screaming fans, and coming out with a win,” Maye said of playing away from Gillette Stadium. “I think it’s pretty cool to celebrate and celebrating in an away locker room that’s different.
“Coach [Vrabel] has always been saying, ‘Road warriors.’ So, we’re trying to find that one more time and finish out strong what we’ve done this year. We’ve got a tough job and a tough challenge, but I think the guys will be pumped up and ready for it.”
Throw the kitchen sink on defense at Jarrett Stidham.
Stidham stands as the true wild-card in this matchup. The former Patriots backup QB hasn’t been impressive in his very limited NFL reps — going 1-3 in four career starts while completing 117-of-197 throws for 1,4222 yards, eight touchdowns, and eight interceptions.
Of course, Sean Payton and Denver’s coaching staff will try to cater an offensive gameplan around Stidham that should minimize risk via plenty of quick, single-read throws.
But New England’s defense — which is giving up an average of 9.5 points per game this postseason — does have the means to put Stidham in a blender on Sunday.
It remains to be seen if Denver running back J.K. Dobbins is cleared to play on Sunday, but New England could also make life easier on itself if it makes the Broncos’ offense one-dimensional by eliminating the ground game. New England allowed just 2.2 yards per carry last week against the Texans.
Advertisement:
If Denver can’t generate any traction on the ground, it could force Payton to put the ball in Stidham’s hands, which New England’s defense would welcome.
Generating pressure against Stidham would be the best course of action to force ill-advised throws — as was the case over the previous two weeks with Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud.
As noted by Phil Perry of NBC Sports Boston, Stidham has completed just 40 percent of his passes for 5.8 yards per attempt when pressured — with one of every five pressures (20.5 percent) resulting in a sack.
Granted, the Patriots will likely have a tougher time generating pressure against Denver’s stout offense line — especially when compared with the porous O-lines fielded by the Chargers and Texans.
Denver’s pass-block win rate of 68 percent ranks eighth in the NFL, while the Broncos tied with the Rams for the fewest sacks allowed (23) during regular-season play.
Some of those low sack totals might be a byproduct of Bo Nix’s athleticism and scrambling ability, which isn’t exactly Stidham’s strong suit. If players like Milton Williams and K’Lavon Chaisson can put Stidham under duress, it could lead to some poor throws from the unproven backup.
But even if Denver’s O-line can hold up, expect Partriots interim defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr to spin the dial on defense against Stidham with plenty of blitzes on first down, simulated pressures, and a ton of disguised zone coverages to keep him guessing.
Advertisement:
If the Broncos eventually need Stidham to make some timely throws to claw back into Sunday’s game, New England’s defense should be able to pounce.
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com