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4 things Patriots must do to beat Chargers in wild-card round
The Patriots need to exploit a porous Chargers offensive line on Sunday night.
For the first time since January 2020, the New England Patriots are set to host a playoff game at Gillette Stadium.
New England’s improbable turnaround campaign will continue on Sunday when they take on the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round — with kick-off from Foxborough set for 8 p.m.
The 14-3 Patriots like their chances in their own building on Sunday night. But a shorthanded — albeit scrappy — Chargers team figures to be a tough out against Drake Maye and New England.
“They’re kind of like an out-west Ravens,” Stefon Diggs said Wednesday of the Chargers. “You could tell [the Harbaugh brothers] were raised in the same household. They preach the same stuff and they kind of play the game. Coach said that, and it triggered, ‘Damn, I never thought of it that way.’”
As New England tries to win its first playoff game since Super Bowl LIII, here are four keys for the Patriots on Sunday night against Los Angeles.
Dial up the pressure against Herbert
New England’s defense hasn’t anchored by an elite pass rush, with only six teams recorded fewer than the 35.0 sacks the Patriots racked up this past season.
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But the likes of Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, and Harold Landry might be looking more akin to Aaron Donald and Myles Garrett on Sunday when matched up against Los Angeles’ porous offensive line.
After losing their starting tackles in Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt to season-ending injuries in August and November, respectively, Los Angeles’ O-line has floundered — often putting QB Justin Herbert under duress.
Herbert is one of the more gifted quarterbacks in the league today. But he’s taken a beating behind this offensive line, including a career-high 54 sacks taken and 129 total quarterback hits.
As noted by NextGen Stats, Herbert ranks 26th in the NFL in rating when pressured, while his EPA (expected points added) per dropback when pressured is 20th in the NFL.
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Unsurprisingly, Herbert’s EPA per dropback soars up to No. 7 in the league when he isn’t pressured (+0.33).
Herbert is already fighting through a non-throwing hand injury that required surgery in early December, with the signal caller throwing just five touchdowns and three interceptions in his last four games since going under the knife.
New England’s best chance at preventing Sunday’s game from turning into a shootout rests in putting Herbert under duress early and often.
The onus will also fall on interior defensive lineman like Williams and Barmore to generate pressure up front and keep Herbert contained. Nine of Herbert’s 26 touchdowns came when flushed outside of the pocket, while he also rushed for 498 yards and converted on 34 first downs while forced to scramble.
Avoid the temptation of the explosive play
One of the key conduits in New England’s resurgent season has been Drake Maye’s knack for concocting explosive plays week in and week out — uncorking howitzers down the field and shifting momentum in short order.
Maye’s MVP candidacy is rooted in his efficient passing metrics despite his propensity to air out his throws.
Per NextGen Stats, Maye led the NFL with 112 downfield completions during the 2025 regular season, including 99 completions under pressure. He also ranked third third in the league in air yards per pass attempt (9.2), while still pacing all QBs in the NFL with a 72.0 percent completion percentage.
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Maye has shown time and time again this season that he can torch defenses with heaves down the field. But he might have to corral that desire against a stingy Chargers defense that has been adept at snuffing out explosive plays and forcing turnovers.
During the regular season, opposing QB matched up against the Chargers posted just 75.0 passer rating — the lowest in the NFL — and are only completing 60.79 percent of their passes, the fifth-lowest mark in the league.
LA defensive coordinator Jesse Minter’s zone-heavy defensive scheme has created a suffocating secondary that is more than ready to pounce on mistakes and prevent pass-catchers from slipping past them.
Only the Bears and Jaguars recorded more interceptions than the Chargers (19) this season, with Los Angeles allowing the second-fewest number of passing plays of 20 yards or more (37) and the third-fewest first downs (151).
“One of the things that they do best is have eyes on the quarterback,” Maye said on Wednesday. “They force a lot of three-and-outs. I think they’re one of the top five defenses in forcing three-and-outs. They keep people in front of you. They don’t have a lot of X plays on them. They try to limit big plays, and I think that’s one of the biggest things I see from them on tape.
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“They’re good on the edge. They’re physical, and I think from an attacking standpoint, if there’s any coverage, there’s always a void. So, I think we’ve seen about all of them you can see this year, and we’ve had success and had some plays that we wish we had back against them.”
Thankfully for the Patriots, Maye carved up zone defenses all season, especially the Chargers’ go-to scheme in cover-three.
As noted by Patriots.com’s Evan Lazar, Maye sported an impressive +72.7 expected points against cover-three this season.
If Los Angeles sticks with three defensive backs hovering deep, Maye should opt to avoid those deep throws down the sideline to the likes of Kayshon Boutte and instead seek out the intermediate gains that should come with players like Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry attacking the seams between zones.
Rely on tight ends to move the chains
Sunday could be a big game for former Charger Hunter Henry, especially if Maye and the Patriots want to avoid those deep throws down the field.
The Chargers have been a thorn in the side of opposing passing games all season. But they’ve struggled all year when it comes to covering tight ends.
As noted by ESPN’s Aaron Schatz, the Chargers just 27th in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) against tight ends this season, with opposing tight ends posting a 77 percent catch rate against Los Angeles since Week 9.
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Safety Derwin James is a thumper and ball hawk who could disrupt New England’s offensive schemes.
But if Los Angeles is operating in cover-three for most of Sunday evening, Henry should be able to pick up consistent yardage if he’s matched up against linebackers in coverage.
Dole out some damage in the running game
A winning formula for Los Angeles on Sunday is rooted in simply keeping the ball out of Maye’s hands.
It’s been a hallmark of Jim Harbaugh’s coaching strategy with the Chargers, as Los Angeles ranks second in the NFL in time per drive (3:11) and fifth in plays per drive (6.5) this season.
New England can counter that by also killing clock on their offensive drives — a scenario that only becomes tangible if the Patriots establish the running game.
Thankfully, the Patriots’ ground game seems to have hit its stride down the stretch.
While rookie TreVeyon Henderson remains the team’s top home-run hitter (four rushing TDs of 50+ yards), Rhamondre Stevenson is playing his best football right now — accumulating 400 total yards and five touchdowns over his last four games.
Don’t be surprised if Josh McDaniels dials up plenty of “jumbo packages” for New England on Sunday, where an extra lineman lines up in order to block and clear lanes for its running backs.
As noted by NBC Sports Boston’s Phil Perry, New England is averaging 8.3 yards per attempt during “jumbo” plays since the bye week — while Los Angeles is just 22nd in the league in positive EPA rate allowed on runs featuring a sixth offensive lineman on the field.
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A bruising approach in the trenches won’t just take some of the pressure of Maye and the passing game, but should also allow New England to both gain consistent yardage and sap time off the clock.
“You’ve got to be physical,” Diggs reiterated on Wednesday. “I mean, the only answer to physicality is physicality.”
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