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How the Patriots’ odds to win division, get No. 1 seed in AFC can improve in Week 13
The Patriots control their own destiny in the AFC East race, while they might need some help down the line to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
There’s an old saying in the NFL that the real season begins after Thanksgiving. Well, we’re officially after Thanksgiving, and the Patriots have positioned themselves well as the “real season” is set to begin.
At 10-2, the Patriots sit in the driver’s seat in the AFC East and in the AFC standings ahead of their Week 13 matchup against the Giants. As New England is the league’s only team to win 10 games at this point in the season, something catastrophic would have to happen for the Patriots to completely miss the postseason.
So, what needs to happen for the Patriots to win the AFC East and lock up the AFC’s No. 1 seed? Well, if they win out, they would almost certainly win both. But let’s take a closer look at how New England can set itself up for a hat and t-shirt game in the coming weeks.
How Patriots’ odds to win AFC East can strengthen in Week 13
Obviously, the easiest way for the Patriots to improve their chances of winning the division and getting the No. 1 seed in the conference is by defeating the Giants on Monday. Just by beating the Giants, the Patriots’ odds to win the AFC East would improve to 94 percent, per The Athletic‘s playoff simulator.
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A win and a Bills loss to the Steelers on Sunday would make it a near certainty that the Patriots would win the division. In that scenario, New England would have a 97 percent chance to win the AFC East, per The Athletic‘s playoff simulator. If the expected results of the Patriots and Bills winning this weekend, New England would have a 92 percent chance to win the division, per The Athletic.
Even if the Patriots lose to the Giants and the Bills beat the Steelers on Sunday, New England’s odds to win the AFC East wouldn’t take a significant hit. The Patriots would hold an 85 percent chance to win the division in that scenario, according to The Athletic.
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That scenario would also allow the Patriots to potentially clinch their first division title in six seasons when they host the Bills in Week 15. New England already has a 2.5-game lead over 7-4 Buffalo, along with the tiebreaker. Even if the Patriots lose to the Bills in Week 15, New England would have the second tiebreaker (division record) on its side.
How Patriots’ odds to get AFC’s No. 1 seed can strengthen in Week 13
Entering Week 13, the Patriots have a 59 percent chance to earn the conference’s top seed, per The Athletic.
A win over the Giants alone, though, wouldn’t impact the Patriots’ chances to get the conference’s No. 1 seed. If the Patriots win and the 9-2 Broncos defeat the Commanders on Sunday, New England’s odds to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed would remain at 59 percent, according to The Athletic.
However, if the Patriots defeat the Giants and the Commanders upset the Broncos, New England’s odds to get the No. 1 seed would jump to 75 percent, according to The Athletic. The Patriots’ odds to get the No. 1 seed could potentially climb up to 80 percent if the Texans defeat the 8-3 Colts as well.
The worst outcome for the Patriots’ hopes to get the No. 1 seed this weekend would be a loss to the Giants, a Broncos win, and a Colts win. In that scenario, the Patriots’ odds to get the No. 1 seed would plummet to 34 percent, while the Broncos’ odds to get the top seed would jump from 26 percent to 38 percent, per The Athletic.
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Ahead of their Week 13 matchups, the Patriots have a half-game lead over the Broncos and a 1.5-game lead over the Colts for the No. 1 seed in the conference. In the off-chance that all three teams finish with the same record, conference record would be used as the top tiebreaker. All three teams currently sit at 6-2 against AFC opponents this season.
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