Patriots open as favorites in 11 games for 2025 NFL regular season
The Patriots only won four games in 2024.
The Patriots will enter the 2025 season with much higher expectations than the expectations they had before the 2024 season.
Following the official release of the 2025 NFL regular season schedule, the Patriots are listed as the favorite in 11 of their 17 games this season at DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s a major difference from last year, in which they weren’t favored to win in any of their 17 games after the 2024 schedule was announced.
The 2024 projection from oddsmakers was far closer to being on the mark than off base. New England went 4-13 last season, with its final win coming in a Week 18 matchup against Buffalo in which both teams played their backups for the majority of the game.
Like last year, the number of games the Patriots are favored to win isn’t equal to their projected win total at sportsbooks. The Patriots currently have an 8.5 win total at DraftKings Sportsbook. Last year, New England’s preseason projected win total by oddsmakers was 4.5.
The Patriots winning at least eight games in 2025 would obviously be a substantial improvement from last season, but there are some reasons to think that they could at least double their 2024 win total. The hiring of Mike Vrabel was widely praised, with executives voting it as the best head coach hire of the offseason in a poll done by The Athletic.
In terms of roster additions, New England signed a few players who were arguably among the best available free agents at their respective positions, including cornerback Carlton Davis, wide receiver Stefon Diggs, linebacker Robert Spillane, and right tackle Morgan Moses. It also signed defensive tackle Milton Williams, who was widely ranked as one of the top few available free agents entering the offseason, regardless of position.
The Patriots were also complimented for their haul in the 2025 NFL Draft. Several analysts liked their approach to go all offense in the first three rounds, landing offensive tackle Will Campbell, running back TreVeyon Henderson, wide receiver Kyle Williams, and center Jared Wilson.
All those moves were made to help bolster the roster around second-year quarterback Drake Maye. The third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft had a promising rookie season, throwing for 2,276 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions to go with an 88.1 passer rating, 421 rushing yards, and two rushing touchdowns in 13 games.
On top of all the moves they’ve made, the Patriots also have a favorable schedule for the 2025 season. They have the third-easiest 2025 schedule based on their opponents’ winning percentages from last season. Eleven of their 17 games are against opponents who had a losing record in 2024. Of those 11 games, eight are against teams that won five or fewer games last season.
Considering that the Patriots are coming off a four-win season, they aren’t a massive favorite in any of the 17 games. They’re less than a touchdown favorite in all 11 games they’re favored in. Their 5.5 points against the spread Browns in Week 8 and the Jets in Week 11 are the games that they have the best odds to win.
Here’s a game-by-game look at the Patriots’ spread against each team in the 2025 season, which is obviously subject to change as the year goes along.
Week 1 vs. Raiders: -3.5
Week 2 @ Dolphins: +2.5
Week 3 vs. Steelers: -1.5
Week 4 vs. Panthers: -3.5
Week 5 @ Bills: +5.5
Week 6 @ Saints: -3
Week 7 @ Titans: -1.5
Week 8 vs. Browns: -5.5
Week 9 vs. Falcons: -3
Week 10 @ Buccaneers: +4.5
Week 11 vs. Jets: -5.5
Week 12 @ Bengals: +4.5
Week 13 vs. Giants: -3
Week 14: Bye
Week 15 vs. Bills: +4.5
Week 16 @ Ravens: +8.5
Week 17 @ Jets: -1.5
Week 18 vs. Dolphins: -2.5
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