Patriots’ win total for 2025 season opens between 7.5 and 8.5 wins at multiple sportsbooks. Is it too high, too low, or the right total?
New England is looking to improve from two straight four-win seasons.
The Patriots have a new coach and spent more than any team in NFL free agency. As a result, expectations seem to be a bit higher in 2025.
New England’s win total for the 2025 season has been set at 7.5 wins at FanDuel Sportsbook. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ win total is at 8.5 wins at DraftKings Sportsbook. The over for the number of games the Patriots win has a higher value at DraftKings (+100) than FanDuel (-120), which isn’t a surprise considering the difference in their projections.
It also doesn’t seem to be too big of a surprise that oddsmakers are projecting the Patriots to win at least three more games in 2025 than they have in each of the last two seasons, when they finished 4-13. The hiring of Mike Vrabel was widely praised, with executives voting it as the best head coach hire of the offseason in a poll done by The Athletic.
Vrabel went 54-45 over his six seasons as the Titans’ head coach, coaching Tennessee to a winning record in each of his first four years. However, Vrabel’s Titans posted a losing record in each of the last two seasons during his time in Tennessee, going 7-10 in 2022 before a 6-11 season in 2023, leading to his firing.
The Patriots also made several notable additions in free agency. They signed four players who were arguably among the best available free agents at their respective positions, including cornerback Carlton Davis, wide receiver Stefon Diggs, linebacker Robert Spillane, and right tackle Morgan Moses. They also signed defensive tackle Milton Williams, who was widely ranked as one of the top few available free agents entering the offseason, regardless of position.
As of Saturday, the Patriots have spent $373 million in free agency, which is by far the most money spent (per Spotrac). That’s typically a good sign for an improvement, as the team that has spent the most money in free agency has gone on to win at least three more games in the following season since 2017. The 2021 Patriots were among those teams, becoming one of four teams to make the playoffs after leading the league in free-agent spending over the last eight years.
While the Patriots have loaded up their roster, arguably the biggest reason for their expected improvement is Drake Maye. He had a promising rookie season, throwing for 2,276 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions to go with an 88.1 passer rating, 421 rushing yards, and two rushing touchdowns in 13 games.
FS1’s Colin Cowherd listed Maye as the top reason why he expects the Patriots to become a playoff team in 2025.
“The Patriots [are] one of my surprise teams in the league,” Cowherd said earlier in March. “I think they have the second-most talented quarterback in the division, and I don’t think it’s particularly close, in Drake Maye. They’ve got to get him weapons in the draft, but it’s a very good tight end, running back draft.
“They upgraded with Mike Vrabel at coach from Jerod Mayo, who just didn’t work. They spent a lot of money. This is going to be a different team. I think they will double their win total, no question.”
To Cowherd’s point, the Patriots still stand to improve with the 2025 NFL Draft taking place in April. New England holds the fourth overall pick and holds one of the top handful of selections in each of the first five rounds, to go with two third-round selections.
It’s unlikely that the majority of those picks will contribute to the Patriots in a significant way in 2025. But the fourth overall pick should allow them to add one of the premier talents in the 2025 draft, with some mock drafts having either star edge rusher Abdul Carter or reigning Heisman winner Travis Hunter falling to them.
If both Carter and Hunter, who are widely regarded as the top two players in the draft, are taken before the Patriots are on the clock, there are still several other top prospects they can target. LSU’s Will Campbell and Missouri’s Armand Membou would help fill a need along the offensive line. Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan or Texas’ Matthew Golden could be selected by New England in a trade-down scenario, which would improve its wide receiver corps. Michigan’s Mason Graham is also viewed as one of the top players in the 2025 draft and if the Patriots were to select him, he’d give New England another strong player on its defensive line.
The Ringer’s Bill Simmons thinks the win total for the Patriots sounds about right, believing that it could go up if they’re able to land one of Carter or Hunter.
“New coach, just spent money all over the place at a bunch of different positions,” Simmons said on his podcast, “The Bill Simmons Podcast.” “They have the fourth pick in the draft, it seems like a 50/50 chance they’re getting one of Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter. Drake Maye [is in] Year 2. To say that the coaching staff will be better is an understatement. They’re going to have a fourth-place schedule. They get to play the NFC South. There’s a lot of things lining up for them to be the Washington team this year.”
As Simmons mentioned, the Patriots’ schedule for 2025 is relatively favorable. They have five games against teams that made the playoffs and six games against teams that had a winning record in 2024. They also have eight games against teams that had five wins or fewer last year.
The spread for individual games isn’t available just yet, as those are typically released when the full schedule is unveiled later in the spring. However, it’s tough to envision that they won’t be favorites in at least a handful of games in 2025. That wasn’t the case ahead of the 2024 season, when the Patriots weren’t favored in a single game ahead of the year.
Oddsmakers were mostly proven correct in their projections for the Patriots in 2024, falling just short of their 4.5 win total. So, this time around, New England is hoping oddsmakers are correct in their initial projections again.
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