How the Patriots’ odds to hold a top pick in 2025 NFL Draft can strengthen in Week 17
The Patriots hold the No. 2 pick entering their game against the Chargers.
The Patriots’ draft pick position in the 2025 NFL Draft improved in Week 16, potentially creating a simple scenario for them to possibly land the No. 1 overall pick.
If the Patriots lose their final two games and the Giants win just once in the final two weeks, New England will likely have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Patriots hold the No. 2 overall pick ahead of their Week 17 matchup against the Chargers, moving up from No. 3 last week following their loss to the Bills and the Raiders’ win over the Jaguars.
New England could wind up being in position to hold the No. 1 pick entering Week 18 if it loses to Los Angeles on Saturday and New York beats Indianapolis on Sunday. The Patriots are 4.5-point underdogs in their Week 17 matchup, but the Giants are 7.5-point underdogs at home against the Colts, seemingly making it unlikely that New England would jump up to hold the No. 1 pick following Week 17.
If the Giants can pull off the upset, though, and the Patriots also lose on Saturday, they wouldn’t be guaranteed to hold the No. 1 overall pick entering the final week of the season. The three-win Jaguars aren’t too far behind them in the strength of schedule tiebreaker. New England currently has the edge by .016 points over Jacksonville (.461 to .477). The Patriots’ edge over the Jaguars in the strength of schedule tiebreaker can improve if the Broncos beat the Bengals, the Raiders beat the Saints, the Eagles beat the Cowboys, the Browns beat the Dolphins, and the Lions beat the 49ers. A Colts win over the Giants would also help improve the Patriots’ gap over the Jaguars in the strength of schedule tiebreaker, but would obviously run counterintuitive to their hopes of getting the No. 1 pick.
However, the Patriots might not need to sweat out the tiebreaker scenario with the Jaguars after Week 17. Jacksonville hosts one of five three-win teams on Sunday, sitting as a one-point underdog against Tennessee. The Jaguars defeated the Titans in Week 14.
Beyond the Jaguars, the Patriots have a clear edge over the other three-win teams in the strength of schedule tiebreaker. The other three teams are at least .047 points behind the Patriots in that tiebreaker, which is essentially an insurmountable difference to make up in the final two weeks of the season.
New England could potentially seal a top-five pick in the 2025 NFL Draft in Week 17 as well. A Patriots loss along with wins by the Browns and Raiders would make it difficult for New England to fall out of the top five as it also has a clear edge in the strength of schedule tiebreaker over the four-win teams. At the very least, a loss by the Patriots on Saturday would likely seal a top-six selection for New England given the aforementioned tiebreaker. The Patriots have already secured a top-10 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, regardless of what happens over the final two weeks.
Entering Week 17, ESPN’s FPI still projects the Patriots to hold the No. 2 overall pick. It projects the Giants to land the No. 1 pick, giving them a 55.2 percent chance to do so to the Patriots’ 22.9 percent odds.
While the Patriots have two games against playoff-bound teams, there is a possibility that the Bills have nothing to play for in Week 18. If the Bills beat the Jets on Sunday, they’ll clinch the No. 2 seed in the AFC, creating a more likely scenario for them to rest important players in their regular-season finale.
The Giants might sit in a similar spot with their Week 18 foe. There’s a possible scenario where the Eagles, who the Giants play in Week 18, clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC after Week 17. If so, they might be in a spot where they feel less inclined to play their key players in Week 18.
In the event the Patriots pull off an upset win on Saturday, they won’t drop any further than No. 6 in the draft order. New England has a 92.1 percent chance of getting a top-five pick, per ESPN’s FPI.
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