How the Patriots’ odds of getting the No. 1 pick in 2025 NFL Draft can improve in Week 16
The Patriots hold the No. 3 overall pick entering Week 16.
The Patriots could move a step closer to securing a top-three pick in the NFL Draft for a second straight season while the No. 1 overall pick is still in play.
New England holds the third overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft entering Week 16. However, ESPN’s FPI gives it the second-best odds to obtain the No. 1 overall pick and projects New England to hold the No. 2 overall pick in the draft. It has a 23.6 percent chance of getting the No. 1 pick, per ESPN’s FPI.
The Patriots’ path to sit in pole position for the No. 1 overall pick after Week 16 is relatively simple. They need to lose while they need the Giants (who currently hold the No. 1 overall pick) and the Raiders (who currently hold the No. 2 overall pick) to both win.
New England, amid a four-game losing streak that knocked it down to 3-11, is a 14-point underdog in its game against Buffalo on Sunday. However, 2-12 New York and 2-12 Las Vegas are each riding longer losing streaks. The Giants are hoping to snap their nine-game losing streak when they head down to Atlanta to take on the 7-7 Falcons with rookie Michael Penix Jr. making his first career start. Still, New York is a nine-point underdog entering Sunday’s game.
The Raiders have a better chance of winning Sunday. Even though they’re amid a 10-game losing streak, the Raiders host the 3-11 Jaguars on Sunday. Las Vegas is actually a two-point favorite in that game.
As the Raiders face a much lesser opponent on Sunday, it makes sense why the Giants currently hold the best odds to land the No. 1 overall pick (37.4 percent) while the Raiders are projected to land the fourth pick and have the third-best odds to get the top pick (13.8 percent), per ESPN’s FPI.
If all three games go the way the odds suggest they will, the Patriots would hold the No. 2 overall pick entering Week 17. That would also be the case if the Patriots lose, the Raiders lose, and the Giants win. New England has a significant edge in the strength of schedule tiebreaker over both teams.
While a Raiders win on Sunday would hurt the Patriots’ odds of obtaining the No. 1 overall pick, it could further solidify their odds of getting a top-five pick. The Jaguars hold the fourth overall pick entering Week 16 and are the team closest to the Patriots in the strength of schedule tiebreaker (New England’s is worse by .019 points).
If the Patriots lose, the Jaguars win, the Panthers upset the Cardinals, the Titans upset the Colts, and the Browns upset the Bengals, New England would have a one-game cushion over those four teams for the No. 3 pick with the tiebreaker in hand.
In the event that the Patriots upset the Bills on Sunday, they wouldn’t fall too far in the draft order. The furthest they could fall is to the No. 7 pick as they hold the strength of schedule tiebreaker over the two 4-10 teams (Jets and Bears).
The Patriots’ advantage in the strength of schedule tiebreaker could also become stronger in Week 16. As the Jaguars are the only team currently holding a top-10 pick that’s threatening the Patriots for that tiebreaker, wins by the Texans, Eagles, Panthers, Browns, Lions, Vikings, and Packers would help New England in that regard.
As New England sits in an advantageous spot entering Week 16, it isn’t a surprise it has great odds to pick in the top five and top 10. ESPN’s FPI model gives the Patriots an 87.6 percent chance of holding a top-five pick and a 99.7 percent chance of holding a top-10 pick.
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