How has Drake Maye’s rookie season stacked up to Josh Allen’s?
Allen has emerged as one of the quarterbacks in the NFL, but Maye arguably got off to a better start in the pros.
Drake Maye will get to go up against the quarterback that many have compared him to for the first time in his career when the Patriots meet the Bills on Sunday.
The Josh Allen comparisons have been prevalent for Maye since he was in college. The Patriots’ rookie quarterback displayed a similar dual-threat ability at North Carolina that Allen has shown for much of his career. Maye’s carried that dual-threat ability in his first season as a professional, throwing impressive deep balls and running by (and, at times, through) opposing defenders in a way similar to Allen.
Maye seemed to be cognizant of the comparisons between him and Allen, but he’s also aware that he’s not at the MVP level that the Bills star is at quite yet.
“I think I’ve got a long way to go. What a player he is, playing at an MVP level,” Maye told reporters when asked how he felt about the comparisons with Allen on Wednesday. “I think the biggest thing is just the progression he’s made. I think what he dealt with, whether coming out of college or his first years here, I feel like everybody was just kind of not giving him the credit he deserved.
“Now, you can see kind of the full fruition of what he’s doing and the level he’s playing at. Just, like I said, fun to watch, and I think I’ve got a long way to go to get to anywhere close to playing at his level.”
Allen has emerged as the MVP favorite as he’s led the Bills to a fifth straight AFC East title. He’s thrown for 3,395 yards, 25 touchdowns, and five interceptions with a 103.5 passer rating to go with 484 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns this season.
But, as Maye alluded to, Allen has come a long way from he began his career. So, let’s take a look at how Maye’s rookie season has stacked up to Allen’s rookie year before the two face off for the first time on Sunday.
Passing: Allen’s 2018 season vs. Maye’s 2024 season
First, let’s start with the background surrounding Allen’s rookie year. Similar to Maye, Allen didn’t open his rookie season as the Bills’ starting quarterback, but was quickly thrust into that role. Allen became the Bills’ starting quarterback after he replaced Nathan Peterman in their Week 1 loss. Allen started 11 of the remaining 15 games after Week 1, missing four games in the middle of the year due to an elbow injury.
Statistically, Allen wasn’t much of an improvement over Peterson. He only completed 52.1 percent of his passes for 2,074 yards (6.5 yards per attempt), 10 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions with a 52.1 passer rating.
However, Allen was prone to throwing the ball down the field as a rookie, often to his detriment. His ADOT (average depth of target) was 11.5, which was the highest among eligible quarterbacks that year. Roughly one-fifth of his passing attempts (19.7 percent) went at least 20 yards in the air, completing just 18 of 63 (28.6 percent) of those such passes for 580 yards, seven touchdowns, and seven interceptions with a 62.9 passer rating, per Pro Football Focus (all advanced passing stats are via PFF).
Allen struggled even more on intermediate throws (10-19 yards) as a rookie. He completed 39 of 80 (48.8 percent) such passes for 712 yards, one touchdown, and four interceptions with a 63.1 passer rating.
Maye, meanwhile, has simply put up better passing numbers as a rookie than Allen did. He’s completed 68.5 percent of his passes for 1,898 yards (6.8 yards per attempt), 12 touchdowns, and nine interceptions with an 88.4 passer rating in 10 games (nine starts).
Now, Maye has been more conservative in pushing the ball down the field than Allen. He has a 7.3 ADOT, which is one of the lower ADOTs among the quarterbacks who’ve started the majority of their team’s games. Only 8.2 percent of his attempts have gone over 20 yards in the air and 18.3 percent of his passes went an intermediate distance, which also both rank toward the bottom among quarterbacks who have started the majority of their team’s games this season.
Maye has been a better passer on those such throws than Allen was as a rookie, though. The Patriots quarterback has completed 7 of 23 (30.4 percent) deep throws this season for 230 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions with a 72.5 passer rating. On intermediate passes, Maye’s completed 26 of 51 such passes (51 percent) for 453 yards, three touchdowns, and four interceptions with a 68.5 passer rating.
Maye has also been a better passer on short throws (0-9 yards) as a rookie than Allen. Maye’s completed 79.3 percent of such throws this season for 917 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions while Allen completed 70.4 percent of such throws as a rookie for 522 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.
Arguably the biggest difference between the two as rookies was how they threw the ball when they had a clean pocket. Allen was more erratic, completing 66.2 percent of his passes when he wasn’t pressured for 1,422 yards, five touchdowns, and seven interceptions with a 79.8 passer rating. Maye, on the other hand, has completed 74.4 percent of his passes when he hasn’t been pressured for 1,415 yards, eight touchdowns, and five interceptions with a 96 passer rating. Both quarterbacks had a one-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio when pressured as rookies.
To Allen’s credit, he did get better as a passer as his rookie season went along. He threw for 1,242 yards, eight touchdowns, and seven interceptions in the six starts he made following his elbow injury.
Maye’s passing stats have also been better as of later compared to when he first started. He’s thrown for at least 200 yards in each of his last four games, posting a passer rating of at least 96 or higher in three of those four games as well.
Rushing: Allen’s 2018 season vs. Maye’s 2024 season
Allen was immediately an elite running quarterback when he entered the NFL. He was second in rushing yards among quarterbacks that season (631), but led all quarterbacks in rushing yards per game (52.6) and rushing touchdowns (eight). He was also third in rushing yards per attempt (7.1) that year.
Maye has been nearly as good of a runner this season as Allen was as a rookie. While he’s only eighth in rushing yards (359) and fifth in rushing yards per game (35.9) among all quarterbacks this season, Maye’s 8.5 yards per carry is the highest among quarterbacks who’ve played in more than five games this season. If Maye’s yards per carry remain the same for the rest of the season, he’d tie Michael Vick for the highest yards per carry among quarterbacks in a season since 2000.
One advantage Allen had over Maye in their rookie seasons was his ability to avoid sacks. Allen had a 16.2 pressure-to-sack rate as a rookie (10th among quarterbacks who started the majority of their team’s games that season) while Maye has a 22.2 pressure-to-sack rate this season, which is 24th among quarterbacks who’ve started the majority of their team’s games this season. That suggests that Allen was able to use his legs to get out of sacks a bit more effectively than Maye has as a rookie.
Of course, the Patriots’ offensive line has been brutal for much of the season. PFF actually ranked it the worst in the league ahead of Week 16. But the Bills’ offensive line wasn’t stellar in Allen’s rookie year, either. That unit ranked 26th among all offensive line’s in the league in 2018, per PFF.
Regardless of the talent around them, Maye’s rookie season compared to Allen’s should present further promise that the Patriots have found their next franchise quarterback. Allen seems to believe that’s the case, too.
“I think their quarterback is going to be really good for a really long time,” Allen told reporters Wednesday. “He’s making some unbelievable plays, extending and from the pocket. I’ve got a lot of respect for him and his game.”
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